Is Jhoulys Chacin the next Jason Hammel? And other former Rockies flourishing elsewhere.

       Jhoulys Chacin was one of the most reliable pitchers for the Rockies from 2010 through 2013, giving fans at 20th and Blake a small amount of hope every 5th day while Jorge de la Rosa battled injuries and a revolving door of mediocre veterans past their primes and underprepared prospects filled out the rotation. Following a poor and injury-shortened 2014, Rockies fans had high hopes that Chacin could bounce back in 2015 to form a solid top of the rotation with Jorge and possibly lead the team to be in the playoff conversation later than their typical mid-May collapse.

Surprisingly, the team outright released Chacin two weeks before the start of the regular season, citing his decreased velocity and "a collection of pitchers who, frankly, outpitched him." That collection of pitchers never panned out, as the Rockies predictably had nobody after de la Rosa ready to step in and be their number 2 pitcher, finding themselves 10 games back in the division by May 18th.

Might we see Jhoulys Chacin pitching in the 2016 playoffs?

Meanwhile, Chacin was picked up by the Indians shortly after the season began. He pitched well enough at AAA Columbus to deserve some time with the big league club, but with Cleveland sporting four of the top 20 AL pitchers in K to BB ratio among those with at least 8 starts, there was not much room for him in the rotation. He requested a release from the club, and was quickly picked up by the Diamondbacks, where he did get the call up to the majors in late August.

Chacin makes his fourth start of the year tonight for Arizona, where he looks to make it four straight starts of 5+ innings and 2 or fewer ER. (Update: Chacin did continue his streak tonight, pitching into the 6th inning and giving up 2 runs to the Dodgers.)
The Diamondbacks, much like the Rockies were claiming about themselves towards the end of last year, have the makings of a team on the brink of contention. A skilled offensive lineup top to bottom paired with several strong pitching prospects who are at or very close to major league ready could lead Arizona back to the postseason in 2016, and the former Rockie Chacin could find himself pitching in meaningful games late in the year for the first time in his career.

It seems unlikely that a pitcher who was cut by an awful team just before the start of a season and who bounced around in two different minor league systems could find himself in a playoff rotation just one year later. However, this is something we have seen repeatedly from former Rockies pitchers, with one player in particular putting together a post-Rockies career that Chacin would certainly love to emulate.

Jason Hammel saved his career by getting out of Denver, and
now will get to pitch in meaningful October games.

Jason Hammel was not outright cut like Chacin was, but the results for the Rockies would have undoubtedly been better had he just been released. Instead, the Rockies traded him, along with a very good reliever in Matt Lindstrom, to the Baltimore Orioles for Jeremy Guthrie. Like Chacin, Hammel was a reliable and durable part of the Rockies rotation from 2009-2011, and even started their last playoff game, the NLDS Game 3 loss to the Phillies in 2009. His numbers were much poorer than Chacin's during his Rockies tenure, but he always had the making of a solid back end rotation member, and it's clear other teams felt the same way: Hammel has since signed two separate big contracts, and in between was a part of the blockbuster Jeff Samardzija/Addison Russell A's-Cubs trade.

Among all pitchers with as many innings as him, Hammel ranks 38th in total WAR in all of MLB since the start of the 2012 season. Although not elite or even necessarily all-star level, that type of consistent contribution and reliability from a middle of the rotation starter is what a typical playoff team would strive for. Not coincidentally, Hammel will likely find himself pitching in October for the Cubs this year.

The Rockies stubbornly thought they would be competing by now, as evidenced by their passing up potential offers including Shelby Miller or Noah Syndergaard for Troy Tulowitzki over the past couple of years before finally accepting the package full of question marks from the Blue Jays. While Hammel could have contributed to making that playoff dream a reality, the Rockies instead dumped the reliable starter following his age 28 season, arguably right as one would be expected to hit their prime ( one year older than Chacin was at the time of his release). And it's not as though Coors Field was limiting Hammel: his home/away splits for his career are nearly identical.

Jeremy Guthrie, from one of the worst half
seasons in recent memory with the Rockies
in 2012 to 2014 World Series Game 7 starter.

Hammel's direct replacement, Jeremy Guthrie, has followed a similar trajectory. A solid starter for the Orioles from 2007-2011, Guthrie took the mound on 3 opening days over a four year stretch. The Rockies acquired the 33 year old veteran prior to the beginning of the 2012 season, and because their second best option was Jamie Moyer, they gave Guthrie the opening day start. The trouble became apparent quickly, as Guthrie had a stretch of 6 straight games giving up at least 4 runs before being demoted to the bullpen in mid-June, and he was sent to the Royals just before the trade deadline for Jonathan Sanchez.

Sanchez, with a no hitter and World Series start already under his belt, was an absolute disaster in just three starts with the Rockies, and has not won a major league game since the trade. Guthrie on the other hand was very serviceable for the resurgent Royals (before his 2015 struggles), culminating in Vahe Gregorian of the Kansas City Star suggesting that the Rockies trade proposal in 2012 seemed like a practical joke in retrospect, and Guthrie starting Game 7 of the 2014 World Series.

The list of former Rockies pitchers who struggled with the club in the last several years and then went on to much greater success elsewhere is not limited to Hammel and Guthrie. Not even close.

• Collin McHugh came to the Rockies from the Mets for Eric Young Jr. in June 2013 (EY of course went on to lead the NL in steals that year), where he put together a 9.95 ERA in 4 starts and was waived at the end of the year. The Astros picked him up, and he has since had back to back excellent years, including a 4th place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2014, and like Hammel and Guthrie, will likely be pitching in the 2015 playoffs.

• Drew Pomeranz was already covered here, but just as a refresher, he struggled consistently after coming over as the key piece in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade in 2011, and was ultimately traded to Oakland for Brett Anderson. Pomeranz has been excellent out of the bullpen and occasionally as a spot starter for the A's the last two years.

Several former members of the Rockies bullpen look to pitch in the
2015 playoffs.

• Brett Anderson, mentioned above as the Rockies return for Drew Pomeranz, pitched in just 8 games for the Rockies in 2014 due to recurring injury problems. The Rockies elected to not re-sign him following the year, and the Los Angeles Dodgers signed him as a free agent in the offseason. Anderson has finally stayed healthy this year, and has been the number 3 pitcher behind one of the best single season 1-2 starting pitching combos in baseball history. He will likely be starting Game 3 of the 2015 NLDS for the Dodgers. 

• Juan Nicasio was a below average but reliable back end starter for the Rockies from 2011-2013. After spending a good portion of 2014 in the minors, the Rockies brought him back to try him in the bullpen, where he excelled; Nicasio gave up 1 run across 9 appearances out of the bullpen in September. The division rival Dodgers took note, as they traded a minor league outfielder to the Rockies for him after he was designated for assignment following the 2014 season. Nicasio has been strong out of the bullpen for the Dodgers in 2015, averaging over a strikeout per inning with a FIP of 2.76 across 49 appearances, and he (sensing a theme??) will likely find himself pitching late in playoff games this year.

• Franklin Morales was a decent bullpen arm for the Rockies early in his career before be sent to the Red Sox for cash in 2011, his age 25 season. Frankie had 2+ solid years with the Red Sox, earned a World Series ring with them in 2013, and was brought back by the Rockies in exchange for Johnny Herrera before the 2014 season. The Rockies let him walk following a rough year, and the Royals signed him to pitch out of their bullpen in 2015. He has had the best statistical season of his career with Kansas City in 2015, and (surprise!) will be pitching meaningful innings in playoffs games for the Royals this October.

• Huston Street was a solid but not elite closer in his three years with the Rockies, but with Rex Brothers seemingly ready to become a dominant 9th inning pitcher (...), the Rockies felt they could afford to move him. They traded Street to the San Diego before the 2012 season for the Padres 2007 first round pick, Nick Schmidt, who never made it above the AAA level and is currently a free agent. Meanwhile, Street has made 2 All-Star game appearances since leaving the Rockies, and should the Angels stay hot and sneak into the playoffs, will be pitching meaningful innings in playoff games this October.

• Matt Belisle was perhaps the most consistent member of the Rockies bullpen for the first half of the 2010s, but gradually declining numbers and velocity led to the Rockies granting him free agency following the 2014 season. The Cardinals signed him 3 days later, and Belisle pitched one of the best half-seasons of his career to start 2015 before getting put on the DL in late June. Just activated from the DL last week, Belisle returns to the Cardinals just in time to pitch meaningful innings for St. Louis in the 2015 playoffs.

The list of players who experienced a resurgence following their departure from the Rockies is not limited to the above, nor is it limited to just pitchers. Simply blaming altitude for the systematic failure of pitchers at Coors and subsequent improvement with a different club, gives far too much credit to the organization; the team has finished in the bottom half of all MLB in ERA-, a park and league adjusted advanced metric that takes normalizes for a disadvantageous home environment, in every year since 2011, and in the bottom 5 in MLB in three of those five years.

The team needs to be held accountable, as these players could form a legitimate playoff pitching staff if they were all on the Rockies today. If they don't, the above list will just continue to grow, starting with Jhoulys Chacin in 2016.

Presenting Two Awards on Persistent Futility: The Culby and The Bondie

         The minimum innings pitched and minimum plate appearance requirements for ratio based statistical leaders mainly serve to ensure the most deserving player receives the award at the end of the year; that is, to prevent some hot-hitting September call-up from winning the batting title. The consequences on the low end of the qualified leaders list can be just as interesting, however. 

Rarely will a player spend an entire year in the majors getting regular at bats or innings despite a near replacement level performance. Young players will get sent to the minors and fall short of the minimum requirements, while struggling veterans will get a pity DL trip for something like shoulder fatigue, or just be outright waived. But the guys who hang around the entire season despite their persistent futility deserve recognition.

I present two awards to acknowledge those players who were not quite bad enough, and just durable enough, to fall short of their respective minimum requirements:

Charlie Culberson and Jeremy Bonderman

The Culby Award, given to the player each year who has the lowest batting average among those who qualify (502 plate appearances, or 3.1 per game). Although Rob Deer may be a more deserving namesake, this award is in honor of our very own Charlie Culberson, who somehow spent all of 2014 in the majors for the highest scoring team in the National League and finished with a .195 batting average and -0.9 WAR. Although he fell short of the necessary plate appearances to qualify, that .195 beat out qualified winner Chris Davis, and if offensive achievements by Rockies players are cheapened by Coors Field, then offensive ineptitude should be considered even more abysmal than it normally would. Hence, the Culby award.

The Bondie Award, given to the player each year with the highest ERA among those who qualify (162 IP, or 1 inning per game). This award is named for the very impressive Jeremy Bonderman, who never had a single season ERA below 4 despite 8 years of being an important rotation member for the Detroit Tigers, which included two opening day starts. 

Culbie and Bondie Award Winners since 2000

Let's break down the Culby/Bondie winners since 2000:

• The Culby winners are a nice mix of Charlie Culberson types (Punto, Barmes, Relaford) who were likely kept around for the gloves, and the usual power hitter/high K rate mashers. 

• The Bondie winners are a more diverse group, so it is harder to pinpoint a particular reason why they would have all accumulated the minimum required innings to qualify. The primary unifying factor is playing for lousy teams: only the 2001 Astros, 2011 Tigers, and 2013 Dodgers made the playoffs with the Bondie winner.

Two time Culbie winners, Carlos Peña and Nick Swisher.

• Jose Lima may seem like a worthy namesake for the Bondie award, as he is the only multiple-time winner since 2000, but he had several excellent years in the late 90s, including an All-Star appearance and 4th place Cy Young finish in 1999.

• An interesting absence of 2010s Rockies from the Bondie award winners. They did have two regular 2012 starters (Christian Friedrich and Jeremy Guthrie) who would have topped Ricky Romero's 5.77 had they qualified, but only Jeff Francis had over even 100 innings for the Rockies that year.

• There is decent all-star representation from both groups, as 5 of the 13 Culby winners have combined to appear in 9 all star games, while 8 of the 14 Bondie winners have combined to appear in 12 all-star games. Vernon Wells is the lone 3-time all star of either group.

• Tim Salmon is the only member of either group to win a major award, taking home AL Rookie of the Year in 1993.

• Nobody, at least since 2000, has made the World Series with either the Culby or Bondie winner.

The race for the 2015 Bondie award is going to come down to the wire. Teammates Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza have been going back and forth for the lead, but with Garza done for the year and Lohse relegated to bullpen duties, the door is open for a late-season surge. Drew Hutchinson is next in line, with his 13-4 win-loss record. Luis Valbuena and Adam LaRoche are battling for the Culby award, with Valbuena's .210 average currently holding a 1 point lead, but with neither a lock to get regular at bats the rest of the way, NL Rookie of the Year candidate Joc Pederson could make history by winning the Culby Award in addition to an actually prestigious award in the same year!

It takes a special type of player to win a Culby or Bondie award, and hopefully going forward these experts in persistent futility will get the recognition they deserve.

The Rockies have nothing left to show for the Ubaldo trade, so was it worth it?

             With the Rockies recent designation of Matt McBride, the team officially has nothing left to show for their blockbuster 2011 trade of Ubaldo Jimenez. The deal to Cleveland brought Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joe Gardner, and McBride to Denver; let's take a look back at net contribution of the four, and any players the Rockies acquired in subsequent deals including them.

The easy one is infielder Joe Gardner, as the Indians' 3rd round pick in 2009 has yet to appear above the AA level for any organization. He was released as a member of the Tulsa Drillers before the 2014 season, and over the course of that year spent time in the Cubs and Braves organizations. He received a 50 game suspension for a second positive drug test prior to the 2015 season and was promptly released by the Braves. He has since spent the 2015 season playing for the independent Lancaster Barnstormers of the Atlantic League of Professional Baseball.

Matt McBride, the lone position player connected to the trade to contribute in the majors for the Rockies, made brief appearances in 2012, 2014, and 2015. His 0 for 4 performance in his last day as a Rockie, across both games of a doubleheader against Arizona on September 1st, dropped his career batting average to .199. In his 158 plate apperances, McBride hit 4 home runs and had more strikeouts (33) than hits (30).

Alex White had the misfortune of the majority of his starts coming during the embarrassing 6-man rotation stretch of 2012. He compiled a 6.30 ERA over 27 starts with the Rockies before being traded to the Houston Astros for Wilton Lopez and Jose Monzon. Monzon never appeared above the short season A level before being released. Lopez was mediocre out of the Rockies surprisingly decent bullpen in 2013, and four abysmal appearances to begin the 2014 season led to his demotion. He spent the rest of 2014 in AAA and was released by the Rockies at the end of that year.

Drew Pomeranz was supposed to be the key piece of the trade for the Rockies, and gave the fans some hope after pitching well in 3 of his 4 starts during his initial September call-up in 2011. The hopes were quickly dashed however, as he spent the majority of 2012 in the bigs, and much like Alex White and the rest of the staff, he could never string together a series of solid starts as a member of the ridiculous 6-man rotation. Pomeranz began 2013 in the minors, had 4 awful starts after his call-up in late June, and did not return to the majors until September, when he yielded just 1 hit across 4 relief appearances. This apparently increased his value just enough for the Rockies to receive an offer to their liking, as they traded Pomeranz for Brett Anderson following the 2013 season. The promising but oft-injured Anderson was (surprise!) hurt during his third start of 2014, and only ended up making 8 starts that year. Despite his solid numbers across those 8 games, the Rockies declined his option, allowing him to enter free agency and ultimately get signed by the Dodgers.

For those who are not keeping track at home, here are the numbers of everyone the Rockies got for Ubaldo:

It was easy for Rockies fans to say the trade was a win after Pomeranz's promising start in September 2011 and Ubaldo's rough first half season with Cleveland, but Jimenez nearly matched his phenomenal 2010 numbers in 2013 while single-handedly carrying the Indians into the playoffs, and has shown flashes of the same with Baltimore this year. That is in addition to the nearly 2 more wins (and counting) that Ubaldo has been worth than his replacements were for Colorado.

Now that it can be easily concluded that the Rockies first blockbuster trade was a failure, it is hard to be hopeful that the recent Tulo trade will have a different result. Given the Blue Jays' dominance since acquiring Tulo, and his unreal 1.3 WAR in his first month north of the border, we may need Jeff Hoffman to turn into a Cy Young contender to have any hope of that deal paying off.