Carlos Estevez's demotion is an admission that Walt Weiss is an unfit manager

On August 3rd, after a convincing 12-2 win over the Dodgers, the Rockies found themselves over .500, the first time they have had more wins than losses this late in the season since finishing the 2010 season 4 games above break-even (despite concluding that year with an 8 game losing streak). The starting staff had 20 quality starts in July (just 7 fewer than they had in all of 2012!), giving Rockies fans the long-forgotten enjoyment of monitoring the standings and rooting against our close NL competitors, just three games back of the second wild card spot.

The Rockies proceeded to lose 10 of their next 12 games, and while an outside chance at a playoff berth is not completely impossible, the nightly fun of keeping an eye on the standings proved short lived. Four of the first 6 losses saw the Rockies with the lead in the 8th inning or later, and 3 of those leads were at least 2 runs. Two of those leads were blown by at-the-time closer Carlos Estevez, who now finds himself as likely to pitch in the majors in the next week as the other, much more famous Carlos Estevez.

Most Rockies fans suspect that Walt Weiss tends to make decisions based on what he sees smart managers do, without properly accounting for the Rockies unique make-up that may or may not accommodate these decisions. This is especially evident with the Rockies having led the NL in infield shifts in 2015, while finishing 29th in Defensive Efficiency (after having the fewest shifts in 2014 and finishing 24th in Defensive Efficiency).

Walt unfortunately did not follow this typical behavior with his bullpen during the rough stretch. He rewarded Carlos Estevez with the closer role after his strong early season performance, and Jake McGee's injury. While most blown saves are a base hit and a blast, maybe due to a single poorly placed pitch, the 23-year-old Estevez coughed up a 2 run lead on August 5th against the Marlins and couldn't rightfully blame any of it on bad luck. Despite having Adam Ottavino, a proven veteran bullpen arm with closing experience who has literally not given up an earned run in nearly two years (of course, it's a 30 inning streak without giving up an ER with a length Tommy John interruption in the middle), Walt felt confidently that Estevez should get the late inning looks. Estevez had pitched well in the week before his meltdown to be fair, but clearly something had gone wrong, as his ERA ballooned from 3.66 to 5.36 in 10 days, over which the Rockies playoff hopes nearly vanished. And Walt didn't do anything about it until it was too late.

Today, the Rockies demoted Estevez to AAA. He was entrusted with late inning leads against other teams also pushing for a playoff spot as recently as one week ago. Sure, Estevez has shown flashes of having great late inning stuff, much like his countryman Miguel Castro, but unlike Castro, who was sent down to the minors in June, Weiss seemed to think Estevez was immune to the typical pressure and inconsistencies that derail young pitchers. Weiss was throwing out a minor league pitcher night after night when the Rockies were in the thick of a playoff race.

Assuming the decision to demote Estevez came from the front office, the move may imply that Bridich and co. find Weiss's decision making questionable, as in contrasts so distinctly with Walt's over-confidence of last week. Bringing up Jeff Hoffman to replace Chatwood instead of Eddie Butler seems to be another move by the front office that contrasts what one would typically expect from Walt. These moves seem to be an admission by the front office that his managerial decisions tend to not give the Rockies the best chance to win. If the playoff hopes continue to dwindle, will the Rockies finally pull the plug on Walt and bring someone in to lead the team back to the playoffs in 2017, as we've seen throughout this year is definitely not out of the realm of possibility?

Apparent philosophical changes by the Rockies organization are cause for optimism heading into 2016.

 Here at George Frazier's Wig, we tend to focus on the negative aspects of the Rockies organization, not because we are inherently cynical (although we are), but because there are so many more negative characteristics of this franchise to discuss than positive ones. However, despite expectations being as low as ever this year, the Rockies organization has a few major differences from the O'Dowd era that may be a sign of actual philosophical changes that are cause for optimism.

Only Jonah Keri thinks the Rockies will avoid the NL West cellar this year among CBS experts.

1. Trevor Story getting the opening day nod. 

Even though this would not be a conversation if not for Jose Reyes' offseason domestic abuse and Daniel Descalso's spring training injury, the Rockies giving the opening day SS job to Trevor Story is an unusual, and positive, move by the club. On the surface, some people believe that it makes no sense to get three extra weeks of Trevor Story and lose team control over him in 2022 as a result. After all, the Rockies handled Nolan Arenado oppositely, and as Matt Gross of Purple Row argues, nobody looks back and wishes Arenado had been brought up three weeks sooner. What Gross is overlooking, however, is the broader implication of this move on the general philosophy of the club.

Even in their worst seasons the Rockies seem to get off to a strong start, so bringing up Trevor Story now is not a move just about winning games in 2016. They are rewarding Story for being the most deserving candidate for the job, which likely affects the psychology of the rest of the clubhouse in only positive ways. Since we already know the Rockies are capable of performing at a league average level on the mound, and that "the Coors Field effect" is not solely to blame, establishing such philosophical changes early may be a sign that, behind the scenes, whatever systematic flaws that lead to and endless amount of "bad luck" that inevitably derail their early season decency are being addressed and maybe even fixed as well.


2. No veterans were brought in to "bolster the starting rotation."

This is closely related to the same type of philosophical change that Story's opening day start represents. In 2011, Jhoulys Chacin was an up and coming young starter, opening the year in the #3 spot in the rotation behind Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa. He ultimately put together an excellent year by Rockies' standards, filling in for Jorge admirably following his Tommy John surgery with an ERA of 3.62 in nearly 200 innings. Entering 2012, with Ubaldo traded away and Jorge still on the shelf, Chacin was poised to make the leap to an ace-caliber pitcher for the Rockies. Instead, the club brought in Jeremy Guthrie and Jamie Moyer, keeping Chacin where he was in 2011 in the #3 spot in the rotation. Chacin ended up taking a major step back early in 2012 before suffering an injury and ultimately missing most of the season. Dan O'Dowd effectively chalked it up to bad luck, saying he did not foresee such injuries happening. Of course, perhaps Chacin, feeling frustration that he needed to prove himself even further after already doing so, was overthrowing and overworking, leading to a season full of injuries.

The 2016 season's opening 4-man rotation (with Gray presumably being added back in once he is needed and healthy) consists of four pitchers (JDLR, Tyler Chatwood, Jordan Lyles and Chad Bettis) that are all in at least their third year with the club. Tyler Chatwood was excellent in 2013, Chad Bettis was serviceable last year, and Jordan Lyles deserves a shot after the club handled his health so poorly last year. None of them are feeling replaced by a Guthrie or Moyer, or Brett Anderson, Kyle Kendrick, Jon Garland, or Roy Oswalt. Each of these four guys earned their spot in the rotation and is not immediately threatened by anyone to lose it. Such stability surely does wonders on a professional athlete's psychological health, and should Jonathan Gray even come close to replicating Ubaldo's 2009 season, there's no reason why this year's rotation couldn't come close to matching those numbers.

The Rockies 2009 rotation, leading to their last playoff appearance. If Gray can even come close to replicating Ubaldo Jimenez, the back end of the rotation is certainly capable of maintaining ERAs in the mid to low 4s. Perhaps the psychological stability is what is needed to allow this year's staff to stay healthy and reach these innings numbers. (Baseball Reference)

Although there may have been veteran pitchers the Rockies could have brought in to improve their rotation, the psychological stress that would have placed on the long-time Rockies would have almost certainly caused such moves to be a net negative on the franchise, as they clearly were in 2012.


3. The absence of Troy Tulowitzki could be addition by subtraction. 

Many fans of the Rockies know that Troy Tulowitzki was never particularly shy with his body language. He would glare at Nolan after the third basemen failed to handle a grounder and complain to the umpire after nearly every single called strike. Most fans were not particularly bothered by this, as his undeniable excellence on the field surely outweighed any potentially negative contributions his attitude brought to the clubhouse. A game I attended on May 21st, 2013 forever made me think that, despite his obvious status as one of the most skilled players in the game, Tulo might do more harm than good to the Rockies.

With the Rockies and Diamondbacks tied at 4 in the bottom of the 10th inning, Carlos Gonzalez hit a 1-out double to bring Tulo up with a chance to end the game with a base hit. The Diamondbacks wisely intentionally walked Tulo to set up the double play opportunity, and the next batter, Wilin Rosario, slapped the first pitch down the right field line to bring CarGo home and end the game. Carlos Gonzalez touched the plate, and immediately trotted back up the first base to meet the rest of his teammates as they came from the dugout to celebrate the night's hero, Wilin, at first base. The rest of his teammates except Troy Tulowitzki, that is, who jogged down to second base, touched the bag, then immediately ran back to the dugout and down into the clubhouse, ignoring the rest of his team as they celebrated with Rosario. Of course, there are a number of possible explanations, but given his body language as he ignored his teammates, it certainly seemed that Tulo was frustrated, possibly feeling that HE should be the one being celebrated.

This may seem like a stretch and a conspiracy theory, but that reaction would certainly fit in with Tulo's personality. And even if there was no malicious intent, with Tulo just being frustrated that he did not get the chance but not actually feeling ill will towards his ecstatic teammates, it certainly cannot help the psychology of a team when their leader reacts so negatively to what should be a celebratory event. Perhaps it's not a coincidence that CarGo and Nolan were two of the best hitters in baseball following the Tulo trade last year, and perhaps similar improvements will continue across the board now that there is less negativity in the clubhouse.

A happy, psychologically healthy clubhouse could go a long way in helping the Rockies bounce back from the worst five-year stretch in franchise history. (Rockies Team Instagram)

A lot would have to go right for the Rockies to be able to replicate their 2009 success, and even if they do, a greatly improved NL West makes the Rockies best case scenario for 2016 still significantly short of a playoff experience. However, signs point to subtle changes in clubhouse philosophy, and if such changes have the positive affect on the team that they certainly could, we could find the Rockies still hovering around .500 late in the season, with even more hope for 2017 and beyond.

How did the Rays trick the Rockies into giving away Corey Dickerson?

         The Tampa Bay Rays have been the model professional sports franchise over the last decade for staying competitive while being frugal. Amazingly, the Rays have finished higher in the standings in the American League than their payroll ranking every single year since 2008. Except that when you look back at their major moves over the past few years, it is not surprising at all, and the Rockies have given them a great opportunity to keep that streak going by trading them Corey Dickerson for Jake McGee and German Marquez.

Yearly opening payroll ranks and year end ranks for the Rockies and Rays in their respective leagues since 2005. Note that from 2005-2012, there were 14 AL teams and 16 NL teams, with each having 15 since 2013.

         Jake McGee is far from the most notable player the Rays have given away in his prime, although over the last two years he has quietly accumulated some of the most impressive numbers among relievers in all of baseball. Many of their moves involving big name players have arguably been victories for their trade partners, simply in terms of contribution to a team's success (namely James Shields and Wade Davis helping bring a World Series to Kansas City while former top prospect Wil Myers has since been flipped for more prospects). However, as the most frugal team in baseball, sometimes giving up all-stars poised for major salary boosts for promising prospects is necessary for maintaining competitiveness despite the minuscule payroll.

         The Rays spend every offseason seeking out cheap, undervalued but promising players that they can steal in exchange for studs on the rise that they would not be able to afford within a few years anyway. And if they can't find a suitor, they are excellent at assessing when a player will demand far more than he's worth, and simply let him walk without looking back:

• BJ Upton left the Rays after the 2012 season and signed a 5 year, $75 million deal before falling just short of the Culby award in his first year, with a .184 batting average bested only by Dan Uggla's .179. His ineptitude continued with such severity that he literally started going by a different name before the 2015 season. Given the contract he commanded, the Rays were never going to have a chance to retain him, but it was a major bullet dodged nonetheless.

Everybody won the James Shields/Wade Davis trade.

• James Shields is a slightly less obvious case, as he and Wade Davis were two of the major components that brought the 2015 World Series to Kansas City, while the remains of that transaction tree for the Rays consist of solid outfielder Steven Souza and pitcher Jake Odorizzi in addition to several still very young prospects. However, Shields' recent major contract with the Padres and Davis' getting a similar significant extension from the Royals demonstrates that, even though the two have performed brilliant since leaving Tampa Bay, the team could never have kept them while maintaining their frugal roster construction.

• David Price was a postseason hero in 2008 much like the former BJ Upton, but unlike BJ the Rays were able to trade him for some value in return before he was offered one of the biggest contracts in baseball history, netting decent starter Drew Smyly and good prospects Willy Adames and Nick Franklin.

• Matt Garza, who was originally acquired by the Rays in a similarly frugal move for Delmon Young, was traded to the Cubs after four excellent years in Tampa Bay for Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer, Sam Fuld, Hak-Ju Lee, and Robinson Chirinos. Wow. That trade may end up being this decade's highway robbery of Bartolo for Lee, Sizemore, and Phillips, although Garza's 2015 falling 13 innings short of destroying everyone for the Bondie Award does not lead one to expect him to magically inflate the diameter of his head by 200% and become the best 40+ year old pitcher since Nolan Ryan.

Crawford and Upton. Although the Rays got nothing in return
for either, letting both walk were among their best moves of
the past decade.

• Carl Crawford, much like BJ Upton, was a longtime beloved Ray who left the team when they wisely recognized he would receive an absurd offer and quickly become a major injury-prone liability for teams who can afford to waste 20 million dollars a year in Boston and Los Angeles.

• Rafael Soriano, much like Jake McGee, was a dominant closer for the Rays before they let him go to sign a nearly 12 million dollar a year contract to be Mariano Rivera's set up man. Soriano has stayed excellent, but he was ultimately replaced by none other than Jake McGee, who over the next few years made about 10% as much money as Soriano to perform at a similar level. 

         Should Jake McGee miraculously continue his dominant ways at Coors Field, he will likely leave in two years to sign a major deal with a contending, high payroll team. Should he continue to struggle with injuries and go the way of Rex Brothers, the Rockies will have given up a great hitting young outfielder for a half year of blown saves. Given the Rays uncanny ability to year after year send players away at the absolutely perfect time, and get great value in return, we should be concerned that the Rockies just fell right into one of the Rays traps. 

         Honestly, it's surprising such a trade with the Rays did not happened sooner. They are like a chess grandmaster to the Rockies high school kid that thinks he's a hot shot. They dangled a move in front of the Rockies that someone competent would never make, giving the appearance of a move that will help them improve, tricking them into taking the bait. And it's only a matter of time before the Rays' long con becomes apparent, when Jake McGee is off the Rockies and Corey Dickerson is batting cleanup for a playoff team. Best of luck C-Dick, we'll miss you.