How Kevin Gausman's success sent me down a Monfort rabbit hole

Although my Rockies attitude this season has been at best apathetic, and at worst actively rooting for losses, I couldn't help but enjoy them winning 3 out of 4 from St. Louis over the July 4th weekend. It looked like July was going to pick up where June left off for the under .500 Cardinals, as they continued west to face the Giants and their best record in baseball. 

Kevin Gausman, who might very well be the NL Cy Young frontrunner if not for the superhuman season from Jacob DeGrom, started the series with 6 no-hit innings against the Cardinals on Monday night. Gausman and the Giants did their best Mets impression, with minimal run support despite a gem from their starter allowing a mediocre opponent to win late.

Kevin Gausman, 2021 NL All-Star and (in a normal year) Cy Young contender. 

Seeing the performance from Gausman, a 6+ inning statement that neither the Giants nor their ace are flukes, reminded me of a brief glimmer of hope I had almost 2 years ago to the day. The former Orioles top prospect, Gausman had never fully reached his potential, finally getting waived by the Braves in early August of 2019. The Rockies had the perfect opportunity to buy low on a 28-year old Grandview High School product and former elite prospect whose recent struggles could mostly be attributed to injury.

When the Reds signed him instead, I sent the following text to my fellow GFW contributor:

It felt like such a no-brainer for the Rockies, who at the time were 8 games under .500, made literally zero moves at the trade deadline a few days earlier, and were clearly on the brink of having their playoff appearance streak end at two. The Reds flier did not amount to success, but it did give an actually competent franchise in the San Francisco Giants all the information they needed to conclude that Gausman still had potential. 

The Giants signed Gausman to a 1 year, $3.33M dollar deal for the shortened 2020 season, and bumped that up to $18.9M and an opening day nod for 2021. That sounds like more than the Rockies would have been willing to pay, but is comparable to what they paid Wade Davis, or any pair of the Bryan Shaw, Mike Dunn, Jake McGee trio, or Ian Desmond, in single seasons over the last several years. Instead, the Rockies, despite their well documented successes at Coors this year, are still going to flirt with 100 losses, The Giants are meanwhile storming towards the best record in baseball, despite being picked by most to finish under .500, on the back of the now 30-year-old Denver native. How could the Rockies have missed out on such a good opportunity?

My quest to root for the worst player in all 30 major league ballparks

My collection commemorating visits to all 30 ballparks.

Happy Opening Day 2021! Unfortunately, what should be the most exciting week for any baseball fan, especially with the opportunity to finally attend games after an 18 month hiatus, is the beginning of an unavoidably miserable year for (in most cases, former) Rockies fans. It seems the only thing that will prevent the Rockies from losing 100+ games would be keeping Trevor Story for the duration of the season, with which would undoubtedly come his departure for nothing in free agency. However, given the demonstrated competence of the Rockies front office at trading their star players for good value, even losing Story for nothing would be a welcome compromise. 

As fans of the various long embarrassing franchises all know, when these helpless seasons arise we must find alternate sources of joy. For the 2021 season, many people who enjoy traveling to different ballparks will get to visit the new home of the Texas Rangers, Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX, unless they are among the lucky few to attend games there during the 2020 postseason.

Thankfully, I completed my journey to see a game in all 30 active ballparks late in the 2019 season. To celebrate the 2021 season, the new Globe Life Field, and the Rockies lineup of primarily barely major league caliber players, I present the worthless collection of souvenirs that commemorates my journey across all MLB parks.

At each ballpark, I purchased the player t-shirt (or "shirsey") of the WORST player they had available at the team store.

This pursuit served multiple purposes:

1. Getting a souvenir from each individual stadium.

2. Ensuring that the souvenir was representative of the time and season in which I visited the stadium.

3. Fitting in with the local fans. Part of the journey to see all 30 stadiums is rooting for the home team at each location, and to fully fit in requires sporting some gear for the team in question.

4. Supporting under-loved players. Every Reds fan owns a Joey Votto shirt or jersey, but how does that make his teammates feel? The unsung heroes of baseball teams deserve recognition too.

At each stadium, the hope was to buy the shirsey, immediately don it, and not see anybody else wearing said player's shirt or jersey. Some teams stock shirts of the majority of their active roster, while others only have the few best players available. 

Here is the chronological order of the stadiums I visited (in some cases, I first visited a park before beginning my t-shirt collection, in which case I needed to return to get a bad player shirsey), with each obtained jersey rated on a scale from 1 to 10, 10 being the best, of how well it held up given my initial goal. The criteria for each score is somewhat arbitrary, but I am primarily considering how good the player ended up being, how prominent they were at the time of the purchase, and how risky of a selection it was at the time (the well-stocked team stores have a low-risk choice of the backup catcher, for example, which is a guaranteed success and therefore scores lower). 

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Jacobs Field - Cleveland, OH
Original Visit: Indians v Tigers - July 25, 1998
T-Shirt Visit: Indians v Marlins - September 3, 2016
Player: Giovanny Urshela

Growing up in the Columbus area in the 90s, it was impossible to not be an Indians fan. I finally got to a game in the summer of 1998, when my dad and I drove up to Cleveland and saw Bartolo Colon start very early in his career. 

I revisited Jacobs Field (how it will forever be known to me) Labor Day weekend in 2016, which was a magical season for Cleveland that ended with the pennant. My shirsey, Giovanny Urshela, was looking like a significant winner until he got a second chance with the Yankees, where all former players from my favorite teams go to thrive.

Score: 6/10

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Coors Field - Denver, CO
Original Visit: Rockies v Braves - August 22, 2000
T-Shirt Visit: N/A

Rockies fans will recognize the date of my first game, which fell shortly after my family relocated from Columbus to Denver, as the infamous Brent Mayne over John Rocker game. Embarrassingly... I fell asleep early in extra innings and my dad was forced to take me home, where we heard the finish on the radio during the drive. 

Having been to Coors at least 100 times in the subsequent 20 years, I never had a clear opportunity to buy a crappy player t-shirt at the team store. However, over the years I accumulated many Rockies shirts through sales, giveaways, or just my general dumb purchasing of them, and my worst Rockies player t-shirt is probably Eddie Butler, closely followed by Boone Logan. 

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Camden Yards - Baltimore, MD
Original Visit: ~July 2006
T-Shirt Visit: Orioles v Rays - July 1, 2017
Player: Ubaldo Jimenez

My original visit to Camden was clearly not memorable, as I am not even sure the exact date or opponent. This being one year before beginning my t-shirt collection, I had to return to get a crappy player shirt, and the timing was perfect in the summer of 2017 to obtain one of my favorite Rockies players of all time, who was in the midst of being the worst pitcher in the American League that season, Ubaldo Jimenez. This was a rare exception, where there were undoubtedly worse players available, but the opportunity to get a Ubaldo shirt was too good to pass up. 

Score: 3/10

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Angel Stadium - Anaheim, CA
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Angels v Twins - August 10, 2007
Player: Orlando Cabrera

This trip to Angel Stadium was the true beginning of both the t-shirt collection, and the pursuit of seeing all 30 stadiums. My dad grew up just a few miles from the stadium in Orange County, attending numerous games when the Angels were the laughing stock of the league just as I had done with the Rockies in the mid 2000s. He wanted to take me there, and on that trip we decided we'd continue taking occasional trips to see new ballparks. 

Having grown up rooting for the Angels because of his fandom, I felt too "good" to get a popular Angels player shirt (which at the time would have likely been Vlad Guerrero, Bartolo Colon, or Francisco Rodriguez). Surely a true fan would have a more obscure player. So, I purchased the shirt of another player I liked, but knew would be underrepresented, in Orlando Cabrera. 

The previous summer, my friend Chris went to a Royals game and got a Mark Teahen shirt, because he found the name funny, but I always thought it was fun that he had the shirsey of such an obscure player. So, the goal to buy a crappy player t-shirt at each began.

Score: 5/10

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Yankee Stadium - New York, NY
Original/T-Shirt Visit (Old Yankee Stadium): Yankees v Royals - June 7, 2008
New Yankee Stadium Visit: Yankees v Rockies - July 19, 2019
Player: Chien-Ming Wang

Our second official baseball trip was an easy choice - to see the famous Yankee Stadium before it closed at the end of the 2008 season. Did I get a Chien-Ming Wang shirsey because I was a teenager who thought it would be funny to wear a shirt with the word "WANG" on it? Perhaps. But did the shirsey pay off? Very much so, as despite being a recent legitimate Cy Young contender, he shortly thereafter left the Yankees and became one of the worst starters in the majors. 

On my east coast trip to finish all 30, I attended a Rockies-Yankees series at the new stadium, when it was approximately 103 degrees and the Rockies were a complete embarrassment. Since this game, I have not seen the Rockies live at Coors Field, as it was the beginning of my truly being ashamed to be a fan of the franchise.

Score: 6/10

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Fenway Park - Boston, MA
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Red Sox v Blue Jays - September 13, 2008
Player: Rocco Baldelli

I attended my freshman year of college at Boston University, living in Kenmore Square with a view into Fenway over the Green Monster from my dorm room. As a result, attending a game to see the Red Sox was high on the priority list that fall. 

While Rocco Baldelli was a solid player, most people forget he was ever on the Red Sox, and now he is more known as a manager than player. That, combined with the star-studded Red Sox lineup at the time, makes this one of the great player shirseys in my collection.

Score: 9/10

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Wrigley Field - Chicago, IL
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Cubs v Braves - July 7, 2009
Player: Jeff Samardzija

The first notable failure of a shirt, Jeff Samardzija was an easy choice at the time because I thought of him far more as the former Notre Dame wide receiver than an MLB pitcher. Of course, he has gone on to have a great career, including one all-star appearance.

Score: 2/10

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Comiskey Park (II) - Chicago, IL
Original/T-Shirt Visit: White Sox v Indians - July 8, 2009
Player: Gordon Beckham

In general, I tried to make my inaugural trip to a ballpark coincide with a neutral visiting opponent, so that I could comfortably root for the home team. This was an exception, as the only good weekend to catch both the Cubs and White Sox was when the Indians were in town. To add insult to injury, we were just a couple weeks early for Mark Buehrle's perfect game. However, a risky shirsey purchase paid off nicely, as the highly touted prospect Gordon Beckham was one of few non-star players available, and he quickly flamed out of the league.

Score: 8/10

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AT&T Park - San Francisco, CA
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Giants v Astros - May 15, 2010
Player: Mark DeRosa

My primary memory of this game was that it was extremely quick, boring, but Kaz Matsui had something like a 20 pitch at bat to end the game. I had liked Mark DeRosa the previous year with the Indians, and he was a clearly on the way out decent veteran that nobody at AT&T would have any reason to purchase the shirt of. 

Score: 6/10

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Petco Park - San Diego, CA
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Padres v Dodgers - May 16, 2010
Player: Heath Bell

Of all 30 ballparks, Petco, despite being in my top 5 favorite parks, had far and away the worst t-shirt selection. They had four players available, and only two of whom were active: Adrian Gonzalez, Heath Bell, Dave Winfield, and Tony Gwynn. Heath Bell was an obvious choice of those.

Score: 5/10

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Target Field - Minneapolis, MN
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Twins v Blue Jays - May 14, 2011
Player: Denard Span

This game was highly memorable for it being about 35 degrees and drizzling. We had seats above the visiting Blue Jays dugout, and my dad ordered a Blue Jays shirt online thinking they would throw him balls at the ends of innings; they did not. 

Apparently Denard Span finished 19th in NL MVP voting while playing for Washington in 2014? Even given this, he has been a wholly forgettable player throughout his career, and as a result makes for a great crappy player shirsey.

Score: 7/10

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Busch Stadium - St. Louis, MO
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Cardinals v Brewers - September 7, 2012
Player: Skip Schumaker

The lone autographed shirsey in the collection. 

Much like in Boston 4 years earlier, an early goal upon moving to St. Louis to start grad school in 2012 was visiting Busch Stadium. Little did I know that I would grow to loathe the team over the subsequent 5 years, even more so now with their "acquisition" of Nolan Arenado, but at the time I was a neutral fan enjoying my first visit to a new park. This game featured a multiple hour rain delay, during which I bought a Skip Schumacher shirt. And who would be first out of the dugout to begin warming up but Skip himself! 

Because many of the self-proclaimed best fans in baseball couldn't have been bothered to wait out the rain delay, I was able to run down to the bottom of the first base section, and get Skip's autograph on his shirsey! Little did he know I had purchased it because he was their worst player available, but this goes down as being the only one of my 30 shirts actually autographed by the player.

Score: 9/10

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Kauffman Stadium - Kansas City, MO
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Royals v Athletics - July 5, 2013
Player: Lorenzo Cain

Living in St Louis, within a few hour drive of many midwest stadiums, first paid off in Summer 2013, when I met my friend Greg (who drove down from Omaha) to see the Royals play. At the time, I had never heard of Lorenzo Cain. I saw zero others wearing a Cain shirt at the game, but shortly after leaving the game and entering a bar downtown, I immediately saw another Cain shirt. This should have been the first clue that I'd made a grave mistake with my purchase. He of course won the ALCS MVP the following year and has been an excellent player ever since.

Score: 1/10

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Marlins Park - Miami, FL
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Marlins v Braves - April 29, 2014
Player: Jarrod Saltalamacchia

I was lucky enough to travel a lot in grad school; without this privilege, Marlins Park would have been challenging to hit, but a conference in Miami in spring 2014 took care of this park. This was my first time recognizing that teams with a large selection often have an easy winner in their catcher (or backup catcher). The score for these situations is limited, as it is very low risk, but I do always enjoy names that are so long that they have to wrap around the number to fit.

Score: 5/10

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Safeco Field - Seattle, WA
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Mariners v Royals - May 9, 2014
Player: Brad Miller and Mike Zunino

Safeco Field had by far the best selection of player shirseys of all stadiums. They must have had 20 different players to choose from. As a result, my dad decided he also wanted a shirt. While I don't remember which one was originally "mine" (I possess both now), we went with a forgettable better and an overhyped prospect that was likely to flame out. While Zunino didn't live up to the expectations, he has proven solid, and splitting the risk across to players is kind of cheating.

Score: 3/10

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Miller Park - Milwaukee, WI
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Brewers v Pirates - July 18, 2015
Player: Martin Maldonado

Another cop out with the backup catcher, Martin Maldonado has gone on to have a very solid career. All I could think of throughout this game, and watching the Pirates there, was Randall Simon blasting the poor Italian sausage.

Score: 3/10

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Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Rays v Orioles - July 25, 2015
Player: James Loney

This game was most notable for being the first of two off-the-bat foul balls I've gotten (I later got one hit by Raimel Tapia at Coors Field). It was not exciting, as I was sitting right at the end of the Orioles dugout, where the stands at Tropicana angle very sharply. An Evan Longoria foul ball hit the netting in the front of the dugout and rolled to a stop right in front of me where only I could reach it. 

My James Loney t-shirt was low risk, as he was already approaching the end of his mediocre career, but overall successful as clearly nobody else there was wearing a Loney shirt. Perhaps that is because nobody else was there.

Score: 4/10

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Nationals Park - Washington, DC
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Nationals v Orioles - September 23, 2015
Player: Michael A Taylor

Another visit thanks to a work conference, this t-shirt purchasing experience was the first of two similar incidents at the team store. If I ever go to a team store where the selection is poor (i.e. only featuring undeniably good and popular players), I will seek out an employee to ask if there are any player shirseys available that are not on display. The answer to this point had always been "no," and is also usually met with confusion. To not sound rude, I usually suggest that I simply want to support the under-loved players. At Nationals Park, the store employee excitedly found me a Michael A Taylor shirt, which had been removed from the shelves due to nobody buying them.

Score: 9/10

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Rangers Ballpark - Arlington, TX
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Rangers v Twins - July 8, 2016
Player: Tanner Scheppers

This trip to Dallas was heavily tarnished by arriving on the night of the police parking garage shooting downtown. The game the next day, at risk of not happening, had a very somber feel to it, but I was still at least able to support the totally forgettable mediocre middle reliever Tanner Scheppers.

Score: 7/10

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Minute Maid Park - Houston, TX
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Astros v Athletics - July 10, 2016
Player: Tyler White

I thought I had an all-time winner with my Tyler White shirsey, but after an extended trip to the minors, he arrived in 2017 with a ridiculous roidbeard and suddenly mashed. He quickly fizzled out again, however, preserving the quality of this crappy player t-shirt.

Score: 8/10

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Great American Ballpark - Cincinnati, OH
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Reds v Mets - September 5, 2016
Player: Tucker Barnhart

I attended a game in Cincinnati as a small child, at what was then known as Cinergy Field, but don't really remember it. As such, my first visit to Great American Ballpark fits here chronologically. Again, I got a mediocre catcher t-shirt, but this game was representative of what we will surely endure with the Rockies this year. 

In Cincinnati, fans get free LaRosa's Pizza if Reds pitchers strike out 11 batters in a game. With the Reds long out of contention and fans simply slogging to the finish line with the team, free pizza was the only potential consolation. In the top of the 9th inning of this game, with the Reds getting blown out and surely to lose promptly after the bottom of the 9th but having combined to record 10 strikeouts, the apparent final Mets hitter got called out on a close play to seemingly end the half inning. The Reds fans erupted in boos at the call, recognizing their missed chance at free pizza. The Mets challenged the call, which was overruled, leading to cheers louder than we had heard all game. The next batter struck out, and the elation in the stands was as though the Reds had just won a playoff birth. 

Score: 5/10

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SunTrust Park - Atlanta, GA
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Braves v Mets - September 16, 2017
Player: Matt (?) Adams

Occasionally, when I see the spread of player shirseys, I have to consult Google to find the first name of a player when I'm not certain who it is simply from the surname and number. Not realizing at the time that Matt Adams had been recently acquired by the Braves, I looked up "Adams Braves number 18" in Google and found confusing results: Both Matt Adams and Lane Adams wore #18 for the Braves at different times that season! 

To this day, I do not know if I own a Matt Adams or Lane Adams shirsey, making this an all-time great.

Score: 10/10

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Oakland-Alameda County Stadium - Oakland, CA
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Athletics v Angels - June 15, 2018
Player: Kendall Graveman

A freezing late spring night in Oakland, I was severely underdressed in shorts and only a light jacket, but I proudly wore my Kendall Graveman shirt over my jacket, which was my second and final time successfully getting a shirt that had been pulled off the shelves at the team store, as he had recently been demoted to AAA despite starting for Oakland on opening day of that year. Getting a player who had been optioned is a little bit cheating, hence the slightly lower score, but overall this shirsey has proven quite solid.

Score: 7/10

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Dodger Stadium - Los Angeles, CA
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Dodgers v Mets - September 3, 2018
Player: Max Muncy

As a lifelong Dodger hater, this one was painful to purchase and wear. The Dodgers had so many damn superstars that their only "bad" player was their hot Rookie, who I was banking on flaming out once his Roidbeard boost wore off. Unfortunately, he has stayed very good for the Dodgers.

Score: 2/10

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Chase Field - Phoenix, AZ

Original/T-Shirt Visit: Diamondbacks v Rockies - September 21, 2018

Player: Chris Owings

My first original/t-shirt visit at a Rockies game, this one was especially challenging to "root" for Arizona as the Rockies were on the brink of clinching a postseason birth and eliminating the Diamondbacks. 

Ironically, my crappy player shirt choice, Chris Owings, is one of the only proven competent players on the Rockies 2021 roster!

Score: 4/10

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PNC Park - Pittsburgh, PA
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Pirates v Reds - April 7, 2019
Player: Colin Moran

The first of the final 6 stadiums I needed, I planned two separate trips to hit them all in summer 2019. This endeavor began in Pittsburgh, where I relied on another surely one-hit Roidbeard wonder to not last. So far, so good.

Score: 6/10

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Comerica Park - Detroit, MI
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Tigers v Indians - April 9, 2019
Player: Mikie Mahtook

The only other perfect score besides the unknown Adams shirt from Atlanta, I couldn't have gotten luckier than with my Mikie Mahtook shirt. That game, he started and player centerfield. I went to multiple games that series, so I was fine wearing my Mahtook shirt upon my initial visit and wearing Indians gear at the later games. Mahtook went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts AND had a terrible fielding error that led to multiple Cleveland runs. He was so bad that fans in my vicinity, seeing me wearing his shirt, were actively yelling at me. 

Mahtook was optioned to the minors the next day and hasn't been heard from since. Mikie, if you read this, I'm terribly sorry for ruining your career, but at least I was rooting for you that fateful April day!

Score: 10/10

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Rogers Centre - Toronto, ON
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Blue Jays v Rays - April 12, 2019
Player: Joe Biagini

Considering I had to just now look up what position Joe Biagini plays (he is a reliever who amassed a 20.77 ERA last season for Houston), I would call this shirsey a success. While he still has time to bounce back, I am not sure how many 30+ year old relievers who were never any good to begin with have a second coming.

Score: 9/10

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Citizen's Bank Park - Philadelphia, PA
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Phillies v Dodgers - July 17, 2019
Player: Roman Quinn

Kicking off my final east coast swing to hit all 30, my friend Sam and I endured a multiple hour rain delay to enjoy a Phillies game. Note to self, when a baseball game ends at 2AM, do not go to the grimy Pat's/Geno's corner to taste test the famous local cheesesteaks. The old cheese whiz will have you vacating the contents of your stomach quite quickly.

I believe Roman Quinn holds the record for fewest career home runs of my entire t-shirt collection among non-pitchers, with 8. 

Score: 8/10

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Citi Field - New York, NY
Original/T-Shirt Visit: Mets v Padres - July 23, 2019
Player: Juan Lagares

As I began traveling more on my own for fun and for work, my dad's participation in these trips became more sporadic. Thankfully, he flew to New York to join for my first time completing every active ballpark. He will join me for my second "completion" in Arlington in two weeks, as will my friend Sam (who I contend will at some point in his life have been to more ballparks than any other living person - he first completed all active parks as a youngster in 1994, and has been to every one built since). 

I always liked Juan Lagares, but he was an easy choice given the limited selection at Citi Field.

Score: 6/10

The "bullpen by committee" - a solution to the Rockies relief pitching woes

Adam Ottavino has been phenomenal for the Rockies this year. In fact, he leads all major league relief pitchers in WAR, even though he has missed the last two weeks. Since Ott went down on May 27th, the only two relievers who have managed to give the Rockies reliable appearances out of the bullpen are rookie Harrison Musgrave, and Adam's DL-replacement Scott Oberg, who have over that span combined to throw 17 2/3 innings and give up just 4 earned runs (all 4 Musgrave's), despite making a combined $920K this season.

Meanwhile, 2015-2016 Rockies reliever Justin Miller elected free agency after the 2016 season, bounced around the minors for the last year and a half, and has found a new home with the Washington Nationals (on the same minor league/minimum salary as Oberg and Musgrave), where since his call-up two weeks ago has thrown 9 innings, allowed just 1 base runner, and has amassed 17 strikeouts. (Let's ignore the fact that he is sporting an obvious roidbeard.)

Justin Miller, Roidbeard champion, and amazing bargain relief pitcher.

Miller is not a rookie, but during his minor league tenure the last year and a half, he supposedly added a pair of new pitches to his repertoire, effectively neutralizing any prior scouting teams had done on him. Perhaps once scouts get up to speed on his new stuff, he'll stop missing bats and will return to being a fringe major leaguer. But even if that happens in the next few weeks, having 10+ effective appearances from a guy on a league minimum salary has incredible value to a team. Especially when the alternative is taking the Bridich route of signing proven veteran relievers to massive contracts to bolster the bullpen, only to have them implode night after night.

Almost no relievers find sustained success for several straight years. It's such a specific skill set, requires tip-top precision and velocity during every single at bat, that the smallest bit of regression can be the difference between an all-star reliever and a 7+ ERA. Even Ottavino, who had been great for the first 4 years of his career, was a below average pitcher last year before addressing his issues this past offseason. And unless he's one of a handful of relief pitchers from each generation that can maintain success out of the pen for many consecutive years, he'll have another awful year sometime in the near future. Hopefully it's a team besides the Rockies that has paid him $15MM immediately before that happens.

The Bullpen By Committee

The success in limited sample size of Oberg, Musgrave, and Miller presents a new idea for approaching a bullpen. The Rockies 2018 strategy is an undeniable failure, and the amount of money committed to the top bullpen arms gives them such reluctance to make significant changes. But if young or revamped relief pitchers can have a month of great success before the scouting catches up to them, why wouldn't a team just use a "bullpen by committee," rotating through relievers at the league minimum for a month at a time, and immediately moving on from them once the scouts catch up?

At worst, these pitchers would perform at the same level as Bryan Shaw, Chris Rusin, Mike Dunn, et al. have for the Rockies this year. Ideally, you get a few weeks of above average performance, like Justin Miller is currently providing the nationals. And perhaps every once in a while, the resurgence is legitimate and you get a few years of reliable relief pitching from your cheap signee, and move on from them before the inevitable implosion that ultimately finds nearly every relief pitcher, regardless of their peak performance.

Here are the top relievers of 2018 so far, by WAR:

On that list are a few veterans on affordable contracts (Ottavino, Herrera, Doolittle), a few players at or near the league minimum (Jeffress, Hader, Hughes, Treinen, Barnes), and the two undeniable best relief pitchers of this generation. For comparison, here is the complete list of Rockies 2018 relief pitchers, each of whom has made at least 10 appearances so far this year:

Outside of Ottavino and Wade Davis (who had been pitching like an all star until the last couple weeks, and now seems to have had the Rockies bug rub off on him), only the aforementioned Musgrave and Oberg have provided any real positive value to the Rockies bullpen this year, while several players have been majorly negative. 

Given the vulnerability and inconsistency of all relief pitchers, is it EVER worth the $7M+ it takes to get a "solid" veteran relief pitcher to bolster the bullpen? Especially considering that at worst, the alternative is cycling through a few Brooks Pounders' until you find a Richard Bleier or a Justin Miller. Perhaps every once in a while you'll get lucky with an Ottavino or Kelvin Herrera, but even a half or full season of that may not be worth it if they turn into a Bryan Shaw or Mike Dunn before the contract runs up. And unless you know for sure you're getting one of the top relievers of the generation, who will be rock solid night after night for years to come, there is no excuse for spending such an exorbitant amount on a bullpen arm. 

Instead, the Rockies should move forward piecing together a bullpen of minimum salaries, moving on from the lost causes that are the majority of their bullpen right now. Maybe it wouldn't pan out or provide success in the grind of a playoff run, but it would at least give them a chance to stay in the race, instead of crippling the team financially for years to come and requiring Bud Black to run the same washed up arms out there every single game. And maybe they'd get lucky and find a young arm or a revamped veteran that can bring the Rockies long-awaited October success while not holding the organization hostage financially over the duration of a long expensive contract.

How Jeff Bridich and the Rockies SHOULD Have Handled the Ryan Rolison Tweet Situation

As all Colorado Rockies fans on social media now know, soon after Ryan Rolison was made the 1st overall Rockies pick in the 2018 MLB draft, the story broke of a terrible tweet that Rolison made in November 2012, when he was 15 years old, wishing that someone who shoot then-President Barack Obama.

Once Rolison was made aware of the sports Twitter world's discovery of said Tweet, he immediately deleted it.  But, by then, that was a bit like closing the barn door after the horse had escaped.  To be honest, GFW believes that Rolison himself had forgotten that he ever tweeted such a comment; it probably was a stupid attempt to be funny or an immature attempt to curry favor with people who he felt held such abhorrent beliefs, and he likely forgot he ever even tweeted it until someone pointed it out to him AFTER he was drafted.  However, it was a threat against the president of the United States, no matter how misguided or immature or the age of the person making the tweet.

And let's be blunt.  A tweet that implies a threat to the life of the country's president - particularly the country's FIRST black president - is FAR worse than a tweet quoting rap lyrics, even if the rap lyrics use an unacceptable racial slur.  It must also be noted that Rolison elected to play college baseball at the university most associated with flying the Confederate Battle flag, something largely irrelevant to every single other student-athlete at the University of Mississippi... until a tweet pops up where that student-athlete has threatened the life of the first black President.

By Tuesday, both Rolison and the Rockies organization had been asked about unfortunate Tweet and mainstream media were reporting Rolison's mea culpa, and the Rockies organization's full support of Rolison and defense of his character going forward.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ryan-rolison-colorado-rockies-mlb-draft-pick-shoot-barack-obama-tweet-2018-06-05/

Although the above (and other) media reports claim that the Rockies organization vets each potential draftee's social media history - which, frankly, EVERY organization in EVERY sport or business should do with all impactful and expensive new hires - GFW does not believe that the Rockies organization actually did this with Rolison.  It is nonsensical for the Rockies organization to imply that they discovered Rolison's tweet from 2012, but did not ask him to delete it prior to drafting him, then allowed it to be "discovered" by other enterprising sports media folks.  Either the organization is lying to its fans, or it is utterly incompetent in both social media AND public relations.

So... here is what SHOULD have happened.

Let's assume the Rockies are NOT competent enough to discover Rolison's tweet or are stupid enough not to ask him to delete it BEFORE he is drafted.

First, once the tweet is discovered, he is asked to delete it.  Check.

Then, when the inevitable questions are asked, the Rockies have helped Rolison make a statement that takes accountability, admits a youthful indiscretion, shows remorse, and details a plan forward to address the heart of the issue.  GFW would suggest that Rolison make THIS statement:

"When I was 15, I made a stupid tweet about President Obama that I had no idea what it really meant.  It was immature, inappropriate, and most of all, stupid, and I regret that I did it.  I have no idea why I did such a stupid thing, but I am thankful that the Colorado Rockies have enough belief in both my pitching and character to draft me in the 1st round.  Not only will the Rockies help me with my pitching, but they also have promised to help me learn WHY I would ever have made such a stupid decision, and I have accepted their generous offer of counseling and look forward to learning about myself and why I would have made that decision, so that I will never make such a stupid decision again."

Further, the Colorado Rockies should have been proactive with their own response, rather than the typical and meaningless "we can just move on" that concluded Rockies GM Jeff Bridich's conference call comments about Rolison's tweet.  Although the sycophantic local media, always carrying water for the Rockies organization in fear of having their access denied should they be overly critical, will accept "we can just move on" as the final word on the subject, they should not.

Here is what the Rockies SHOULD have said:  "The Colorado Rockies organization became aware of 1st round pick Ryan Rolison's abhorrent tweet from 2012 in which he implied a threat on the life of President Barack Obama immediately after we selected Ryan.  While Ryan was 15 years old when he made that tweet, in our careful vetting of Ryan as a potential Colorado Rockies team member, we discovered absolutely nothing in his character like that.  Nonetheless, the Colorado Rockies organization has offered, and Ryan has accepted, counseling that will determine why he made such a foolish and immature decision in 2012.  Clearly, both the Colorado Rockies and Ryan are confident that Ryan can learn, through introspective counseling, why he made such a statement, and are confident that he will never make a mistake of that magnitude again."

Instead, "we can just move on"... right? Nothing to see here...

O'Dowd and Geivett brought the current Rockies success, while Bridich may trigger a regression

When the Rockies bounced back from some of their most embarrassing years in franchise history with a playoff appearance in 2017, fans were ecstatic, and for good reason. We had gone from seeing washed up veterans like Jeremy Guthrie, Roy Oswalt, Jon Garland, and Jamie Moyer get significant starts to having home grown youngsters carry the team. The expectations were raised, and despite the (justifiable) frustration with many components of what should be the team's strengths so far in 2018, the Rockies enter June first place in the competitive NL West, which historically gives them a 58% chance of winning the division at season's end.

Simply based on team performance, Jeff Bridich's tenure as a GM has been a success. The Rockies have seen their record improve each year under Bridich, and are on pace to potentially extend that streak. And yet, that success has been despite many of the prominent moves and signings of Bridich and his staff, and instead is primarily due to a string of successful early draft picks late in the Dan O'Dowd/Bill Geivett era. And given the red flags of the first few years of Bridich's tenure, we should probably not get used to the Rockies competing for a playoff spot every year.

O'Dowd and Geivett Early Round Draft Picks

A significant portion of the Rockies major contributors right now were first or second round selections by Dan O'Dowd and Bill Geivett:

• Nolan Arenado: 2nd round in 2009.
• Chad Bettis: 2nd round in 2010.
• Trevor Story: 1st round in 2011.
• David Dahl: 1st round in 2012. 
• Jon Gray: 1st round in 2013.
• Ryan McMahon: 2nd round in 2013.
• Kyle Freeland: 1st round in 2014.

Although only Nolan of that group is a true superstar, having a run of 6 straight drafts in which a first or second round draft pick is currently on the major league roster and contributing meaningfully is a major success of scouting, drafting, and player development, and is the main reason for their strong performance in 2017 and 2018 so far. 

Bridich Early Round Draft Picks

While it is too early to say whether or not any of Bridich's early draft picks will ever contribute at the major league level, we can look at their early career performances in the low minors to get a feel for whether or not this recent run of Rockies success will continue into the next decade. 

• Brendan Rodgers: 1st round in 2015. All signs point to Rodgers being a strong major league middle infielder for years to come, with him abusing minor league pitching at every stop of his professional career so far.

• Mike Nikorak: 1st round in 2015. In 15 starts with the rookie-league Grand Junction Rockies in 2015 and 2016, Nikorak amassed a 6.70 ERA with 34 strikeouts and 51 walks in 47 innings. As if those horrible numbers weren't enough of a red flag that he would never fully pan out (K/9 and K/BB generally translate well across minor league levels), he had Tommy John surgery in spring 2017.

• Tyler Nevin: 1st round in 2015. I'm immediately skeptical of first round picks that are the children of former major leaguers (former first overall pick and all-star Phil Nevin in this case), and Nevin hasn't done much in his short minor league career so far to make this seem like anything but a nepotism pick. In 659 career minor league at bats across various levels of A-ball, Nevin has a 0.785 OPS. 

• Peter Lambert: 2nd round in 2015. Lambert has performed well at each level of the minors he has stopped at so far, showing a promising trajectory towards the majors. He has 308 strikeouts and 83 walks in 353 2/3 career minor league innings.

• Riley Pint: 1st round in 2016. After being selected 4th overall and given a 4.8 million dollar signing bonus, Pint pitched to a 5.35 ERA in rookie ball in 2016 and a 5.42 ERA in A-ball last year. He has 115 strikeouts and 84 (!) walks in 130 career professional innings, and gave up 5 runs while recording just 1 out in his lone 2018 appearance, since which he has been out with forearm tightness. 

• Robert Tyler: 1st round in 2016. In his first professional season in 2016, Tyler had a 6.43 ERA with 5 strikeouts and 16 walks in just 7 innings. After not pitching at all in 2017 due to shoulder fatigue (red flag alert), he is off to a decent start out of the bullpen in Asheville in 2018, with 20 strikeouts and just 4 walks in 17 innings.

• Ben Bowden: 2nd round in 2016. Stop me if this sounds familiar. Bowden pitched well (29 Ks and 15 BB in 23 2/23 innings) to start his career in 2016 before (major red flag alert!) not pitching at all in 2017 due to an undisclosed injury.

• Ryan Vilade: 2nd round in 2017. After performing well in rookie ball last year, the SS prospect who was the first selection for the Rockies in 2017 (more on this later) has struggled to a poor 0.639 OPS in Asheville in 2018, but scouts say his fielding abilities should help him stay on course.

• Tommy Doyle: 2nd round in 2017. A college reliever who the Rockies picked 70th overall despite being ranked as the 168th best prospect in that draft by MLB.com, Doyle has a 4.91 ERA with 42 Ks and 16 BBs in 40 1/3 innings closing out games in the low minors.

So in summary, with his early round draft picks, Bridich has prepared the next generation Rockies to have a potentially great infielder (Rodgers), a Barmes-esque "defensive specialist" (Vilade), a good starter (Lambert), two below average relievers (Tyler and Doyle), and a whole bunch of injury and performance red flags.

But perhaps the biggest red flag of the Bridich era is his handling of free agents, with many big name signings grossly underperforming for the Rockies. Ian Desmond has been the most frustrating of the bunch, and by outbidding Texas' qualifying offer for him after the 2016 season, the Rockies forfeited their 2017 first round draft pick. So not only are the Rockies crippling their present by paying him 15-20 million per year for the next 5 years, they have crippled their future by missing out on a first round pick in exchange for him, which as we have seen is the most likely way for the Rockies to build success. 

Although given the plethora of young pitchers drafted early by Bridich who either underperform or get mysterious fatigue-based injuries, it's hard to have confidence that the Rockies wouldn't have ruined whoever they might have drafted.

An Unfortunate Theory That Must Be Said About Pat Valaika's Motivation

DID PAT VALAIKA SHARE HIS FATHER'S MEDICAL STORY NOW IN AN EFFORT TO ENGENDER PITY AND THUS AVOID DISCUSSION OF HIS ANEMIC ON-FIELD 2018 PERFORMANCE AND THUS AVOID A POTENTIAL DEMOTION TO AAA?

On Monday, April 9, 2018, the brilliant Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic released a long, touching piece about Colorado Rockies' Pat Valaika and his family's struggle with his father's ongoing health issues.  In short, the Valaika family has soldiered on bravely since their patriarch, Pat's Dad Dave, went into a coma following heart surgery in January 2015.  Though now in a rehab facility, Dave Valaika remains in a coma since January 2015, a terrible challenge many families face and that the Valaika family has managed very dutifully, lovingly, and bravely.

Rosenthal's piece is here: https://theathletic.com/307425/2018/04/09/for-rockies-pat-valaika-and-family-the-heartache-of-a-patriarch-not-gone-but-silent/

But the question must be asked:  why would Pat Valaika release this interesting family information now?  GFW doesn't remember any previous media coverage of this touching story before Monday, and doesn't remember Rockies TV play-by-play man Drew Goodman ever mentioning this story, a story that would seem to be tailor-made for the treacly pablum usually spouted by the always-unprepared yet always-eager-to-kiss-players'-asses Goodman.

In this story (https://www.purplerow.com/2016/10/21/13353166/colorado-rockies-prospects-pat-valaika-derek-jeter-nomar-garciaparra) from purplerow.com in October 2016, the first season Pat Valaika appeared in the major leagues, written when Dave Valaika had been in a coma for more than 18 months, Pat talks reverently about his father taking him to Spring Training when Pat was a youngster... but does not mention his father's medical condition.

In another story (https://milehighsports.com/arenado-and-valaika-give-their-parents-a-day-to-remember/) following Pat's Father's Day home run in 2017, milehighsports.com writer Colin Barnard goes as far as to write a headline that Nolan Arenado (who also homered on both Mother's Day and Father's Day in 2017, like Pat Valaika) and Pat Valaika "give their parents a day to remember."  Given that Pat's father had been in a coma for nearly 30 months at that time, Dave Valaika's condition would have been a fascinating part of this narrative.  To exclude it would be nonsense... unless Pat Valaika himself had never told anyone of his father's condition as of June 2017.

In Rosenthal's The Athletic piece, Rockies Manager Bud Black is reported to have said that (only) members of the Rockies front office and some of Pat's teammates are even aware of his father's condition... and that Pat doesn't talk much about it.  I have no doubt that the amount of information in Rosenthal's piece required months of interviews and research, but Pat undoubtedly contributed to WHEN the piece was allowed to be published, and Pat had, by all accounts, failed to tell many people about this family struggle.

Until now.  When Pat is hitting below .100 (after a very successful cup of coffee at the end of 2016 and a very productive 2017, all of which occurred during Pat's father's medical issues).  Why would Pat wait until NOW to allow a long, thorough, deep piece to be released by perhaps the premier baseball reporter in the country?  So much for not talking about it much.

So why now?  Realistically, Pat is struggling in 2018.  Not just struggling, but struggling terribly.  Hitting below ;100 when the article was published, an embarrassing night last night (including a horrendous GIDP in a key spot and another weak foul pop out in another key spot in a Rockies loss to San Diego) pushed Pat's average below .050.  Any objective observer could note that, despite small sample size, Pat's performance is SO abhorrent this year that a demotion to AAA (or a trip to the disabled list for a manufactured injury, a typical move right out of the Rockies front office playbook) is warranted to avoid his performance contributing to the Rockies playing themselves out of playoff contention before the snow on the Front Range has completely disappeared.

So hate to ask, but...

DID PAT VALAIKA SHARE HIS FATHER'S MEDICAL STORY NOW IN AN EFFORT TO ENGENDER PITY AND THUS AVOID DISCUSSION OF HIS ANEMIC ON-FIELD 2018 PERFORMANCE AND THUS AVOID A POTENTIAL DEMOTION TO AAA?

The Roidbeard: An investigation into baseball's modern facial hair craze

Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were named co-sportsmen of the year by Sports Illustrated in 1998. They had revitalized the dying sport that was baseball, making the strike of four years earlier feel like a foggy distant memory. In commemorating the occasion, the two men were literally likened to gods on the cover of the year-end edition of the magazine:

And yet, barely a decade later, baseball fans and media members alike looked back with embarrassment. People felt cheated, like their heroes had deceived them into falling back in love with a corrupt game. Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire went from literal gods saving the game to the biggest culprits behind its destruction, deserving the loss of a third of their stats and no recognition by the baseball hall of fame. But why were we all so surprised? After all, a simple glance at Pirates-era Bonds compared to Giants-era Bonds looks like what appears to be two entirely different players:

While most players bulk up over the course of their career, something about the physical changes of the most notorious PED abusers seems especially jarring. A similar side-by-side for other players starts to reveal what they have in common beyond just their impressive stature.

Jason Giambi, Jose Canseco, Sammy Sosa, and Mark McGwire all underwent a similar and obvious extreme physical transformation as Barry Bonds.

The most notable steroid users all seem to have magically received an inflated head and/or neck along with their other late-career physical changes, with Bonds especially being regularly questioned about his head size. In recent years, as steroid testing has become more thorough and apparently more difficult to circumvent, seemingly only borderline major leaguers (such as Alec Asher, Abraham Almonte and David Paulino) trying to establish themselves as regulars, or the occasional all-star but not MVP caliber player (such as Dee Gordon, Ervin Santana, and Starling Marte) trying to make a push for one last massive payday, are using traditional performance enhancing drugs.

However, HGH, which has been known since the 1970s to be correlated with head size, is only tested for during the season, and the chemistry presumably continues to evolve to allow players to stay one step ahead of testing. Even if the tests can be beat, though, there's no hiding the unnatural physical changes of the head and neck... that is, unless the players can come up with some other means of distracting from their swollen facial features.

Enter 2010 Brian Wilson. The above-average reliever turned MVP candidate and postseason hero ushered in a new trend of players growing excessively large beards, and passing it off as sheer goofiness. "Fear the Beard" became a regular chant at AT&T park, while fake beards were popular giveaways. His appearance was made all the more extreme with the beard's sleek black dyed color and his bizarre public persona. But perhaps Brian Wilson ushered in more than just new fashion trend, and instead gave major league players a way of covering up any unnatural increases in head and neck size as a consequence of HGH use. Which in Wilson's case earned him that massive pay increase (over $40MM from 2010-2015) that was undeniably worth the risk of a potential tarnished reputation.

With so much money involved, major league baseball players surely have the means to beat a drug test. But thanks to Brian Wilson's ingenuity, players can also conceal the unintended side effects of performance enhancing drug use. And ultimately, what's the risk? If a player is a borderline major leaguer to begin with, multiple years into their career but at risk of missing out on a second long-term contract due to persistent mediocrity, they are not going to be a hall of famer anyway. The worst case scenario for these players is a tarnished reputation and brief stretch of boos from opposing team's fans until their misdeeds are forgotten a few years later (see: Starling Marte and Dee Gordon). And the best case scenario? How about an extra $100 million, as "Roidbeard" case study number 2, Charlie Blackmon, has recently learned. And sure enough, his transition from mediocre outfield to perennial all-star and MVP candidate coincided perfectly with his growth of a monstrous, disgusting beard.

Every year, it seems like a relief pitcher that nobody's ever heard of shows up to the majors with a gigantic beard and an uncannily easy ability to hit 100mph on the gun with every fastball. Or maybe a former apparent first round bust returns from multiple years of injuries and trips to the minors to become the best reliever in baseball. Or a supposed power hitter with so little to contribute that nobody will even sign him disappears to Korea for a few years, only to return and crush huge home runs with great ease. Or a good but not great veteran with no risk to tarnish a hall-of-fame reputation suddenly goes from defensive wizard to offensive stud towards the end of his career.

Justin Turner was shaping up to be a classic, average MLB player, working himself into an every day role but not with enough sustained excellence to guarantee a lifetime's worth of money from a single contract. He bounced around a bit during his first four years before settling with the Dodgers, not coincidentally during the same year that our old friend Brian Wilson was wrapping up his career. Wilson clearly introduced Turner to the ways of the Roidbeard, just in time to save his career and give him this unnatural trajectory of becoming an orders of magnitude better player as he entered his 30s:

Sure enough, Turner muscled out a roidbeard, got a massive contract extension after the 2016 season, and became one of the best players in the league in 2017, with an incredible amount of facial hair arriving in unison with the disappearance of hair from the top of his head:

 
                              

Charlie Blackmon's substantial new contract from the Rockies certainly won't be the last for a player in their 30s who miraculously went from average to all-star in their 30s, perfectly coinciding with their growth of what I henceforth deem the Roidbeard.

Jordan Lyles is literally one of the worst pitchers of all time

Watching Jordan Lyles mow down the Rockies with a pair of scoreless innings tonight led me down a deep dive into his baseball-reference page. As longtime readers of Frazier's Wig (of which there are zero) know, we are fascinated by metrics that really show certain players' persistent futility. This motivated the creation of the Bondie (for the pitcher with the highest ERA among qualifiers each year) and Culby (for the batter with the lowest average among qualifiers each year) awards.

Seeing a negative career WAR at the top of baseball-reference pages always catches my attention. The namesake of the aforementioned Culby award, Charlie Culberson, is among them with his -0.9 WAR, which very possibly earns him the distinction of being the worst player to ever hit a home run in the World Series.

So naturally, Jordan Lyles' career -3.5 came flying out of the page when I saw it. I paid for a one day, $2 subscription for BR's Play Index just to figure out how historically bad that is, and boy was I not disappointed.

• 143 pitchers have thrown 650+ innings since 2010.

• Three of those players have a negative career WAR: Jeff Locke at -0.5, Kevin Correia at -1.0, and Lyles at -3.5.

• Remember, a completely average, serviceable, replaceable major leaguer would amass 1.0 WAR per year. Lyles has been in the majors for 7 years, and over that span has been over 10 wins worse than any random, above average AAA player.

• Since 1900, there are only 3 total pitchers with more career innings and a lower career WAR than Jordan Lyles: Randy Lerch, Mike Kekich, and Kevin Jarvis.

• Since 1900, there are only 15 total PLAYERS with a WAR worse than Lyles' career WAR.

Of course, WAR is a cumulative stat, so there have surely been more than 15 players throughout Major League history who have been worse than Jordan Lyles. But most players that bad don't get nearly the necessary amount of innings or at bats to acquire that much negative WAR - they'd be out of the league long before then. So let's admire Jordan Lyles for his incredible ability to be extremely shitty, but just barely not shitty enough to leave the league, for the entirety of his career.

Carlos Estevez's demotion is an admission that Walt Weiss is an unfit manager

On August 3rd, after a convincing 12-2 win over the Dodgers, the Rockies found themselves over .500, the first time they have had more wins than losses this late in the season since finishing the 2010 season 4 games above break-even (despite concluding that year with an 8 game losing streak). The starting staff had 20 quality starts in July (just 7 fewer than they had in all of 2012!), giving Rockies fans the long-forgotten enjoyment of monitoring the standings and rooting against our close NL competitors, just three games back of the second wild card spot.

The Rockies proceeded to lose 10 of their next 12 games, and while an outside chance at a playoff berth is not completely impossible, the nightly fun of keeping an eye on the standings proved short lived. Four of the first 6 losses saw the Rockies with the lead in the 8th inning or later, and 3 of those leads were at least 2 runs. Two of those leads were blown by at-the-time closer Carlos Estevez, who now finds himself as likely to pitch in the majors in the next week as the other, much more famous Carlos Estevez.

Most Rockies fans suspect that Walt Weiss tends to make decisions based on what he sees smart managers do, without properly accounting for the Rockies unique make-up that may or may not accommodate these decisions. This is especially evident with the Rockies having led the NL in infield shifts in 2015, while finishing 29th in Defensive Efficiency (after having the fewest shifts in 2014 and finishing 24th in Defensive Efficiency).

Walt unfortunately did not follow this typical behavior with his bullpen during the rough stretch. He rewarded Carlos Estevez with the closer role after his strong early season performance, and Jake McGee's injury. While most blown saves are a base hit and a blast, maybe due to a single poorly placed pitch, the 23-year-old Estevez coughed up a 2 run lead on August 5th against the Marlins and couldn't rightfully blame any of it on bad luck. Despite having Adam Ottavino, a proven veteran bullpen arm with closing experience who has literally not given up an earned run in nearly two years (of course, it's a 30 inning streak without giving up an ER with a length Tommy John interruption in the middle), Walt felt confidently that Estevez should get the late inning looks. Estevez had pitched well in the week before his meltdown to be fair, but clearly something had gone wrong, as his ERA ballooned from 3.66 to 5.36 in 10 days, over which the Rockies playoff hopes nearly vanished. And Walt didn't do anything about it until it was too late.

Today, the Rockies demoted Estevez to AAA. He was entrusted with late inning leads against other teams also pushing for a playoff spot as recently as one week ago. Sure, Estevez has shown flashes of having great late inning stuff, much like his countryman Miguel Castro, but unlike Castro, who was sent down to the minors in June, Weiss seemed to think Estevez was immune to the typical pressure and inconsistencies that derail young pitchers. Weiss was throwing out a minor league pitcher night after night when the Rockies were in the thick of a playoff race.

Assuming the decision to demote Estevez came from the front office, the move may imply that Bridich and co. find Weiss's decision making questionable, as in contrasts so distinctly with Walt's over-confidence of last week. Bringing up Jeff Hoffman to replace Chatwood instead of Eddie Butler seems to be another move by the front office that contrasts what one would typically expect from Walt. These moves seem to be an admission by the front office that his managerial decisions tend to not give the Rockies the best chance to win. If the playoff hopes continue to dwindle, will the Rockies finally pull the plug on Walt and bring someone in to lead the team back to the playoffs in 2017, as we've seen throughout this year is definitely not out of the realm of possibility?

Apparent philosophical changes by the Rockies organization are cause for optimism heading into 2016.

 Here at George Frazier's Wig, we tend to focus on the negative aspects of the Rockies organization, not because we are inherently cynical (although we are), but because there are so many more negative characteristics of this franchise to discuss than positive ones. However, despite expectations being as low as ever this year, the Rockies organization has a few major differences from the O'Dowd era that may be a sign of actual philosophical changes that are cause for optimism.

Only Jonah Keri thinks the Rockies will avoid the NL West cellar this year among CBS experts.

1. Trevor Story getting the opening day nod. 

Even though this would not be a conversation if not for Jose Reyes' offseason domestic abuse and Daniel Descalso's spring training injury, the Rockies giving the opening day SS job to Trevor Story is an unusual, and positive, move by the club. On the surface, some people believe that it makes no sense to get three extra weeks of Trevor Story and lose team control over him in 2022 as a result. After all, the Rockies handled Nolan Arenado oppositely, and as Matt Gross of Purple Row argues, nobody looks back and wishes Arenado had been brought up three weeks sooner. What Gross is overlooking, however, is the broader implication of this move on the general philosophy of the club.

Even in their worst seasons the Rockies seem to get off to a strong start, so bringing up Trevor Story now is not a move just about winning games in 2016. They are rewarding Story for being the most deserving candidate for the job, which likely affects the psychology of the rest of the clubhouse in only positive ways. Since we already know the Rockies are capable of performing at a league average level on the mound, and that "the Coors Field effect" is not solely to blame, establishing such philosophical changes early may be a sign that, behind the scenes, whatever systematic flaws that lead to and endless amount of "bad luck" that inevitably derail their early season decency are being addressed and maybe even fixed as well.


2. No veterans were brought in to "bolster the starting rotation."

This is closely related to the same type of philosophical change that Story's opening day start represents. In 2011, Jhoulys Chacin was an up and coming young starter, opening the year in the #3 spot in the rotation behind Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa. He ultimately put together an excellent year by Rockies' standards, filling in for Jorge admirably following his Tommy John surgery with an ERA of 3.62 in nearly 200 innings. Entering 2012, with Ubaldo traded away and Jorge still on the shelf, Chacin was poised to make the leap to an ace-caliber pitcher for the Rockies. Instead, the club brought in Jeremy Guthrie and Jamie Moyer, keeping Chacin where he was in 2011 in the #3 spot in the rotation. Chacin ended up taking a major step back early in 2012 before suffering an injury and ultimately missing most of the season. Dan O'Dowd effectively chalked it up to bad luck, saying he did not foresee such injuries happening. Of course, perhaps Chacin, feeling frustration that he needed to prove himself even further after already doing so, was overthrowing and overworking, leading to a season full of injuries.

The 2016 season's opening 4-man rotation (with Gray presumably being added back in once he is needed and healthy) consists of four pitchers (JDLR, Tyler Chatwood, Jordan Lyles and Chad Bettis) that are all in at least their third year with the club. Tyler Chatwood was excellent in 2013, Chad Bettis was serviceable last year, and Jordan Lyles deserves a shot after the club handled his health so poorly last year. None of them are feeling replaced by a Guthrie or Moyer, or Brett Anderson, Kyle Kendrick, Jon Garland, or Roy Oswalt. Each of these four guys earned their spot in the rotation and is not immediately threatened by anyone to lose it. Such stability surely does wonders on a professional athlete's psychological health, and should Jonathan Gray even come close to replicating Ubaldo's 2009 season, there's no reason why this year's rotation couldn't come close to matching those numbers.

The Rockies 2009 rotation, leading to their last playoff appearance. If Gray can even come close to replicating Ubaldo Jimenez, the back end of the rotation is certainly capable of maintaining ERAs in the mid to low 4s. Perhaps the psychological stability is what is needed to allow this year's staff to stay healthy and reach these innings numbers. (Baseball Reference)

Although there may have been veteran pitchers the Rockies could have brought in to improve their rotation, the psychological stress that would have placed on the long-time Rockies would have almost certainly caused such moves to be a net negative on the franchise, as they clearly were in 2012.


3. The absence of Troy Tulowitzki could be addition by subtraction. 

Many fans of the Rockies know that Troy Tulowitzki was never particularly shy with his body language. He would glare at Nolan after the third basemen failed to handle a grounder and complain to the umpire after nearly every single called strike. Most fans were not particularly bothered by this, as his undeniable excellence on the field surely outweighed any potentially negative contributions his attitude brought to the clubhouse. A game I attended on May 21st, 2013 forever made me think that, despite his obvious status as one of the most skilled players in the game, Tulo might do more harm than good to the Rockies.

With the Rockies and Diamondbacks tied at 4 in the bottom of the 10th inning, Carlos Gonzalez hit a 1-out double to bring Tulo up with a chance to end the game with a base hit. The Diamondbacks wisely intentionally walked Tulo to set up the double play opportunity, and the next batter, Wilin Rosario, slapped the first pitch down the right field line to bring CarGo home and end the game. Carlos Gonzalez touched the plate, and immediately trotted back up the first base to meet the rest of his teammates as they came from the dugout to celebrate the night's hero, Wilin, at first base. The rest of his teammates except Troy Tulowitzki, that is, who jogged down to second base, touched the bag, then immediately ran back to the dugout and down into the clubhouse, ignoring the rest of his team as they celebrated with Rosario. Of course, there are a number of possible explanations, but given his body language as he ignored his teammates, it certainly seemed that Tulo was frustrated, possibly feeling that HE should be the one being celebrated.

This may seem like a stretch and a conspiracy theory, but that reaction would certainly fit in with Tulo's personality. And even if there was no malicious intent, with Tulo just being frustrated that he did not get the chance but not actually feeling ill will towards his ecstatic teammates, it certainly cannot help the psychology of a team when their leader reacts so negatively to what should be a celebratory event. Perhaps it's not a coincidence that CarGo and Nolan were two of the best hitters in baseball following the Tulo trade last year, and perhaps similar improvements will continue across the board now that there is less negativity in the clubhouse.

A happy, psychologically healthy clubhouse could go a long way in helping the Rockies bounce back from the worst five-year stretch in franchise history. (Rockies Team Instagram)

A lot would have to go right for the Rockies to be able to replicate their 2009 success, and even if they do, a greatly improved NL West makes the Rockies best case scenario for 2016 still significantly short of a playoff experience. However, signs point to subtle changes in clubhouse philosophy, and if such changes have the positive affect on the team that they certainly could, we could find the Rockies still hovering around .500 late in the season, with even more hope for 2017 and beyond.

How did the Rays trick the Rockies into giving away Corey Dickerson?

         The Tampa Bay Rays have been the model professional sports franchise over the last decade for staying competitive while being frugal. Amazingly, the Rays have finished higher in the standings in the American League than their payroll ranking every single year since 2008. Except that when you look back at their major moves over the past few years, it is not surprising at all, and the Rockies have given them a great opportunity to keep that streak going by trading them Corey Dickerson for Jake McGee and German Marquez.

Yearly opening payroll ranks and year end ranks for the Rockies and Rays in their respective leagues since 2005. Note that from 2005-2012, there were 14 AL teams and 16 NL teams, with each having 15 since 2013.

         Jake McGee is far from the most notable player the Rays have given away in his prime, although over the last two years he has quietly accumulated some of the most impressive numbers among relievers in all of baseball. Many of their moves involving big name players have arguably been victories for their trade partners, simply in terms of contribution to a team's success (namely James Shields and Wade Davis helping bring a World Series to Kansas City while former top prospect Wil Myers has since been flipped for more prospects). However, as the most frugal team in baseball, sometimes giving up all-stars poised for major salary boosts for promising prospects is necessary for maintaining competitiveness despite the minuscule payroll.

         The Rays spend every offseason seeking out cheap, undervalued but promising players that they can steal in exchange for studs on the rise that they would not be able to afford within a few years anyway. And if they can't find a suitor, they are excellent at assessing when a player will demand far more than he's worth, and simply let him walk without looking back:

• BJ Upton left the Rays after the 2012 season and signed a 5 year, $75 million deal before falling just short of the Culby award in his first year, with a .184 batting average bested only by Dan Uggla's .179. His ineptitude continued with such severity that he literally started going by a different name before the 2015 season. Given the contract he commanded, the Rays were never going to have a chance to retain him, but it was a major bullet dodged nonetheless.

Everybody won the James Shields/Wade Davis trade.

• James Shields is a slightly less obvious case, as he and Wade Davis were two of the major components that brought the 2015 World Series to Kansas City, while the remains of that transaction tree for the Rays consist of solid outfielder Steven Souza and pitcher Jake Odorizzi in addition to several still very young prospects. However, Shields' recent major contract with the Padres and Davis' getting a similar significant extension from the Royals demonstrates that, even though the two have performed brilliant since leaving Tampa Bay, the team could never have kept them while maintaining their frugal roster construction.

• David Price was a postseason hero in 2008 much like the former BJ Upton, but unlike BJ the Rays were able to trade him for some value in return before he was offered one of the biggest contracts in baseball history, netting decent starter Drew Smyly and good prospects Willy Adames and Nick Franklin.

• Matt Garza, who was originally acquired by the Rays in a similarly frugal move for Delmon Young, was traded to the Cubs after four excellent years in Tampa Bay for Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer, Sam Fuld, Hak-Ju Lee, and Robinson Chirinos. Wow. That trade may end up being this decade's highway robbery of Bartolo for Lee, Sizemore, and Phillips, although Garza's 2015 falling 13 innings short of destroying everyone for the Bondie Award does not lead one to expect him to magically inflate the diameter of his head by 200% and become the best 40+ year old pitcher since Nolan Ryan.

Crawford and Upton. Although the Rays got nothing in return
for either, letting both walk were among their best moves of
the past decade.

• Carl Crawford, much like BJ Upton, was a longtime beloved Ray who left the team when they wisely recognized he would receive an absurd offer and quickly become a major injury-prone liability for teams who can afford to waste 20 million dollars a year in Boston and Los Angeles.

• Rafael Soriano, much like Jake McGee, was a dominant closer for the Rays before they let him go to sign a nearly 12 million dollar a year contract to be Mariano Rivera's set up man. Soriano has stayed excellent, but he was ultimately replaced by none other than Jake McGee, who over the next few years made about 10% as much money as Soriano to perform at a similar level. 

         Should Jake McGee miraculously continue his dominant ways at Coors Field, he will likely leave in two years to sign a major deal with a contending, high payroll team. Should he continue to struggle with injuries and go the way of Rex Brothers, the Rockies will have given up a great hitting young outfielder for a half year of blown saves. Given the Rays uncanny ability to year after year send players away at the absolutely perfect time, and get great value in return, we should be concerned that the Rockies just fell right into one of the Rays traps. 

         Honestly, it's surprising such a trade with the Rays did not happened sooner. They are like a chess grandmaster to the Rockies high school kid that thinks he's a hot shot. They dangled a move in front of the Rockies that someone competent would never make, giving the appearance of a move that will help them improve, tricking them into taking the bait. And it's only a matter of time before the Rays' long con becomes apparent, when Jake McGee is off the Rockies and Corey Dickerson is batting cleanup for a playoff team. Best of luck C-Dick, we'll miss you.