Apparent philosophical changes by the Rockies organization are cause for optimism heading into 2016.

 Here at George Frazier's Wig, we tend to focus on the negative aspects of the Rockies organization, not because we are inherently cynical (although we are), but because there are so many more negative characteristics of this franchise to discuss than positive ones. However, despite expectations being as low as ever this year, the Rockies organization has a few major differences from the O'Dowd era that may be a sign of actual philosophical changes that are cause for optimism.

Only Jonah Keri thinks the Rockies will avoid the NL West cellar this year among CBS experts.

1. Trevor Story getting the opening day nod. 

Even though this would not be a conversation if not for Jose Reyes' offseason domestic abuse and Daniel Descalso's spring training injury, the Rockies giving the opening day SS job to Trevor Story is an unusual, and positive, move by the club. On the surface, some people believe that it makes no sense to get three extra weeks of Trevor Story and lose team control over him in 2022 as a result. After all, the Rockies handled Nolan Arenado oppositely, and as Matt Gross of Purple Row argues, nobody looks back and wishes Arenado had been brought up three weeks sooner. What Gross is overlooking, however, is the broader implication of this move on the general philosophy of the club.

Even in their worst seasons the Rockies seem to get off to a strong start, so bringing up Trevor Story now is not a move just about winning games in 2016. They are rewarding Story for being the most deserving candidate for the job, which likely affects the psychology of the rest of the clubhouse in only positive ways. Since we already know the Rockies are capable of performing at a league average level on the mound, and that "the Coors Field effect" is not solely to blame, establishing such philosophical changes early may be a sign that, behind the scenes, whatever systematic flaws that lead to and endless amount of "bad luck" that inevitably derail their early season decency are being addressed and maybe even fixed as well.


2. No veterans were brought in to "bolster the starting rotation."

This is closely related to the same type of philosophical change that Story's opening day start represents. In 2011, Jhoulys Chacin was an up and coming young starter, opening the year in the #3 spot in the rotation behind Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa. He ultimately put together an excellent year by Rockies' standards, filling in for Jorge admirably following his Tommy John surgery with an ERA of 3.62 in nearly 200 innings. Entering 2012, with Ubaldo traded away and Jorge still on the shelf, Chacin was poised to make the leap to an ace-caliber pitcher for the Rockies. Instead, the club brought in Jeremy Guthrie and Jamie Moyer, keeping Chacin where he was in 2011 in the #3 spot in the rotation. Chacin ended up taking a major step back early in 2012 before suffering an injury and ultimately missing most of the season. Dan O'Dowd effectively chalked it up to bad luck, saying he did not foresee such injuries happening. Of course, perhaps Chacin, feeling frustration that he needed to prove himself even further after already doing so, was overthrowing and overworking, leading to a season full of injuries.

The 2016 season's opening 4-man rotation (with Gray presumably being added back in once he is needed and healthy) consists of four pitchers (JDLR, Tyler Chatwood, Jordan Lyles and Chad Bettis) that are all in at least their third year with the club. Tyler Chatwood was excellent in 2013, Chad Bettis was serviceable last year, and Jordan Lyles deserves a shot after the club handled his health so poorly last year. None of them are feeling replaced by a Guthrie or Moyer, or Brett Anderson, Kyle Kendrick, Jon Garland, or Roy Oswalt. Each of these four guys earned their spot in the rotation and is not immediately threatened by anyone to lose it. Such stability surely does wonders on a professional athlete's psychological health, and should Jonathan Gray even come close to replicating Ubaldo's 2009 season, there's no reason why this year's rotation couldn't come close to matching those numbers.

The Rockies 2009 rotation, leading to their last playoff appearance. If Gray can even come close to replicating Ubaldo Jimenez, the back end of the rotation is certainly capable of maintaining ERAs in the mid to low 4s. Perhaps the psychological stability is what is needed to allow this year's staff to stay healthy and reach these innings numbers. (Baseball Reference)

Although there may have been veteran pitchers the Rockies could have brought in to improve their rotation, the psychological stress that would have placed on the long-time Rockies would have almost certainly caused such moves to be a net negative on the franchise, as they clearly were in 2012.


3. The absence of Troy Tulowitzki could be addition by subtraction. 

Many fans of the Rockies know that Troy Tulowitzki was never particularly shy with his body language. He would glare at Nolan after the third basemen failed to handle a grounder and complain to the umpire after nearly every single called strike. Most fans were not particularly bothered by this, as his undeniable excellence on the field surely outweighed any potentially negative contributions his attitude brought to the clubhouse. A game I attended on May 21st, 2013 forever made me think that, despite his obvious status as one of the most skilled players in the game, Tulo might do more harm than good to the Rockies.

With the Rockies and Diamondbacks tied at 4 in the bottom of the 10th inning, Carlos Gonzalez hit a 1-out double to bring Tulo up with a chance to end the game with a base hit. The Diamondbacks wisely intentionally walked Tulo to set up the double play opportunity, and the next batter, Wilin Rosario, slapped the first pitch down the right field line to bring CarGo home and end the game. Carlos Gonzalez touched the plate, and immediately trotted back up the first base to meet the rest of his teammates as they came from the dugout to celebrate the night's hero, Wilin, at first base. The rest of his teammates except Troy Tulowitzki, that is, who jogged down to second base, touched the bag, then immediately ran back to the dugout and down into the clubhouse, ignoring the rest of his team as they celebrated with Rosario. Of course, there are a number of possible explanations, but given his body language as he ignored his teammates, it certainly seemed that Tulo was frustrated, possibly feeling that HE should be the one being celebrated.

This may seem like a stretch and a conspiracy theory, but that reaction would certainly fit in with Tulo's personality. And even if there was no malicious intent, with Tulo just being frustrated that he did not get the chance but not actually feeling ill will towards his ecstatic teammates, it certainly cannot help the psychology of a team when their leader reacts so negatively to what should be a celebratory event. Perhaps it's not a coincidence that CarGo and Nolan were two of the best hitters in baseball following the Tulo trade last year, and perhaps similar improvements will continue across the board now that there is less negativity in the clubhouse.

A happy, psychologically healthy clubhouse could go a long way in helping the Rockies bounce back from the worst five-year stretch in franchise history. (Rockies Team Instagram)

A lot would have to go right for the Rockies to be able to replicate their 2009 success, and even if they do, a greatly improved NL West makes the Rockies best case scenario for 2016 still significantly short of a playoff experience. However, signs point to subtle changes in clubhouse philosophy, and if such changes have the positive affect on the team that they certainly could, we could find the Rockies still hovering around .500 late in the season, with even more hope for 2017 and beyond.

How did the Rays trick the Rockies into giving away Corey Dickerson?

         The Tampa Bay Rays have been the model professional sports franchise over the last decade for staying competitive while being frugal. Amazingly, the Rays have finished higher in the standings in the American League than their payroll ranking every single year since 2008. Except that when you look back at their major moves over the past few years, it is not surprising at all, and the Rockies have given them a great opportunity to keep that streak going by trading them Corey Dickerson for Jake McGee and German Marquez.

Yearly opening payroll ranks and year end ranks for the Rockies and Rays in their respective leagues since 2005. Note that from 2005-2012, there were 14 AL teams and 16 NL teams, with each having 15 since 2013.

         Jake McGee is far from the most notable player the Rays have given away in his prime, although over the last two years he has quietly accumulated some of the most impressive numbers among relievers in all of baseball. Many of their moves involving big name players have arguably been victories for their trade partners, simply in terms of contribution to a team's success (namely James Shields and Wade Davis helping bring a World Series to Kansas City while former top prospect Wil Myers has since been flipped for more prospects). However, as the most frugal team in baseball, sometimes giving up all-stars poised for major salary boosts for promising prospects is necessary for maintaining competitiveness despite the minuscule payroll.

         The Rays spend every offseason seeking out cheap, undervalued but promising players that they can steal in exchange for studs on the rise that they would not be able to afford within a few years anyway. And if they can't find a suitor, they are excellent at assessing when a player will demand far more than he's worth, and simply let him walk without looking back:

• BJ Upton left the Rays after the 2012 season and signed a 5 year, $75 million deal before falling just short of the Culby award in his first year, with a .184 batting average bested only by Dan Uggla's .179. His ineptitude continued with such severity that he literally started going by a different name before the 2015 season. Given the contract he commanded, the Rays were never going to have a chance to retain him, but it was a major bullet dodged nonetheless.

Everybody won the James Shields/Wade Davis trade.

• James Shields is a slightly less obvious case, as he and Wade Davis were two of the major components that brought the 2015 World Series to Kansas City, while the remains of that transaction tree for the Rays consist of solid outfielder Steven Souza and pitcher Jake Odorizzi in addition to several still very young prospects. However, Shields' recent major contract with the Padres and Davis' getting a similar significant extension from the Royals demonstrates that, even though the two have performed brilliant since leaving Tampa Bay, the team could never have kept them while maintaining their frugal roster construction.

• David Price was a postseason hero in 2008 much like the former BJ Upton, but unlike BJ the Rays were able to trade him for some value in return before he was offered one of the biggest contracts in baseball history, netting decent starter Drew Smyly and good prospects Willy Adames and Nick Franklin.

• Matt Garza, who was originally acquired by the Rays in a similarly frugal move for Delmon Young, was traded to the Cubs after four excellent years in Tampa Bay for Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer, Sam Fuld, Hak-Ju Lee, and Robinson Chirinos. Wow. That trade may end up being this decade's highway robbery of Bartolo for Lee, Sizemore, and Phillips, although Garza's 2015 falling 13 innings short of destroying everyone for the Bondie Award does not lead one to expect him to magically inflate the diameter of his head by 200% and become the best 40+ year old pitcher since Nolan Ryan.

Crawford and Upton. Although the Rays got nothing in return
for either, letting both walk were among their best moves of
the past decade.

• Carl Crawford, much like BJ Upton, was a longtime beloved Ray who left the team when they wisely recognized he would receive an absurd offer and quickly become a major injury-prone liability for teams who can afford to waste 20 million dollars a year in Boston and Los Angeles.

• Rafael Soriano, much like Jake McGee, was a dominant closer for the Rays before they let him go to sign a nearly 12 million dollar a year contract to be Mariano Rivera's set up man. Soriano has stayed excellent, but he was ultimately replaced by none other than Jake McGee, who over the next few years made about 10% as much money as Soriano to perform at a similar level. 

         Should Jake McGee miraculously continue his dominant ways at Coors Field, he will likely leave in two years to sign a major deal with a contending, high payroll team. Should he continue to struggle with injuries and go the way of Rex Brothers, the Rockies will have given up a great hitting young outfielder for a half year of blown saves. Given the Rays uncanny ability to year after year send players away at the absolutely perfect time, and get great value in return, we should be concerned that the Rockies just fell right into one of the Rays traps. 

         Honestly, it's surprising such a trade with the Rays did not happened sooner. They are like a chess grandmaster to the Rockies high school kid that thinks he's a hot shot. They dangled a move in front of the Rockies that someone competent would never make, giving the appearance of a move that will help them improve, tricking them into taking the bait. And it's only a matter of time before the Rays' long con becomes apparent, when Jake McGee is off the Rockies and Corey Dickerson is batting cleanup for a playoff team. Best of luck C-Dick, we'll miss you.

         

         

Is Jhoulys Chacin the next Jason Hammel? And other former Rockies flourishing elsewhere.

       Jhoulys Chacin was one of the most reliable pitchers for the Rockies from 2010 through 2013, giving fans at 20th and Blake a small amount of hope every 5th day while Jorge de la Rosa battled injuries and a revolving door of mediocre veterans past their primes and underprepared prospects filled out the rotation. Following a poor and injury-shortened 2014, Rockies fans had high hopes that Chacin could bounce back in 2015 to form a solid top of the rotation with Jorge and possibly lead the team to be in the playoff conversation later than their typical mid-May collapse.

Surprisingly, the team outright released Chacin two weeks before the start of the regular season, citing his decreased velocity and "a collection of pitchers who, frankly, outpitched him." That collection of pitchers never panned out, as the Rockies predictably had nobody after de la Rosa ready to step in and be their number 2 pitcher, finding themselves 10 games back in the division by May 18th.

Might we see Jhoulys Chacin pitching in the 2016 playoffs?

Meanwhile, Chacin was picked up by the Indians shortly after the season began. He pitched well enough at AAA Columbus to deserve some time with the big league club, but with Cleveland sporting four of the top 20 AL pitchers in K to BB ratio among those with at least 8 starts, there was not much room for him in the rotation. He requested a release from the club, and was quickly picked up by the Diamondbacks, where he did get the call up to the majors in late August.

Chacin makes his fourth start of the year tonight for Arizona, where he looks to make it four straight starts of 5+ innings and 2 or fewer ER. (Update: Chacin did continue his streak tonight, pitching into the 6th inning and giving up 2 runs to the Dodgers.)
The Diamondbacks, much like the Rockies were claiming about themselves towards the end of last year, have the makings of a team on the brink of contention. A skilled offensive lineup top to bottom paired with several strong pitching prospects who are at or very close to major league ready could lead Arizona back to the postseason in 2016, and the former Rockie Chacin could find himself pitching in meaningful games late in the year for the first time in his career.

It seems unlikely that a pitcher who was cut by an awful team just before the start of a season and who bounced around in two different minor league systems could find himself in a playoff rotation just one year later. However, this is something we have seen repeatedly from former Rockies pitchers, with one player in particular putting together a post-Rockies career that Chacin would certainly love to emulate.

Jason Hammel saved his career by getting out of Denver, and
now will get to pitch in meaningful October games.

Jason Hammel was not outright cut like Chacin was, but the results for the Rockies would have undoubtedly been better had he just been released. Instead, the Rockies traded him, along with a very good reliever in Matt Lindstrom, to the Baltimore Orioles for Jeremy Guthrie. Like Chacin, Hammel was a reliable and durable part of the Rockies rotation from 2009-2011, and even started their last playoff game, the NLDS Game 3 loss to the Phillies in 2009. His numbers were much poorer than Chacin's during his Rockies tenure, but he always had the making of a solid back end rotation member, and it's clear other teams felt the same way: Hammel has since signed two separate big contracts, and in between was a part of the blockbuster Jeff Samardzija/Addison Russell A's-Cubs trade.

Among all pitchers with as many innings as him, Hammel ranks 38th in total WAR in all of MLB since the start of the 2012 season. Although not elite or even necessarily all-star level, that type of consistent contribution and reliability from a middle of the rotation starter is what a typical playoff team would strive for. Not coincidentally, Hammel will likely find himself pitching in October for the Cubs this year.

The Rockies stubbornly thought they would be competing by now, as evidenced by their passing up potential offers including Shelby Miller or Noah Syndergaard for Troy Tulowitzki over the past couple of years before finally accepting the package full of question marks from the Blue Jays. While Hammel could have contributed to making that playoff dream a reality, the Rockies instead dumped the reliable starter following his age 28 season, arguably right as one would be expected to hit their prime ( one year older than Chacin was at the time of his release). And it's not as though Coors Field was limiting Hammel: his home/away splits for his career are nearly identical.

Jeremy Guthrie, from one of the worst half
seasons in recent memory with the Rockies
in 2012 to 2014 World Series Game 7 starter.

Hammel's direct replacement, Jeremy Guthrie, has followed a similar trajectory. A solid starter for the Orioles from 2007-2011, Guthrie took the mound on 3 opening days over a four year stretch. The Rockies acquired the 33 year old veteran prior to the beginning of the 2012 season, and because their second best option was Jamie Moyer, they gave Guthrie the opening day start. The trouble became apparent quickly, as Guthrie had a stretch of 6 straight games giving up at least 4 runs before being demoted to the bullpen in mid-June, and he was sent to the Royals just before the trade deadline for Jonathan Sanchez.

Sanchez, with a no hitter and World Series start already under his belt, was an absolute disaster in just three starts with the Rockies, and has not won a major league game since the trade. Guthrie on the other hand was very serviceable for the resurgent Royals (before his 2015 struggles), culminating in Vahe Gregorian of the Kansas City Star suggesting that the Rockies trade proposal in 2012 seemed like a practical joke in retrospect, and Guthrie starting Game 7 of the 2014 World Series.

The list of former Rockies pitchers who struggled with the club in the last several years and then went on to much greater success elsewhere is not limited to Hammel and Guthrie. Not even close.

• Collin McHugh came to the Rockies from the Mets for Eric Young Jr. in June 2013 (EY of course went on to lead the NL in steals that year), where he put together a 9.95 ERA in 4 starts and was waived at the end of the year. The Astros picked him up, and he has since had back to back excellent years, including a 4th place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2014, and like Hammel and Guthrie, will likely be pitching in the 2015 playoffs.

• Drew Pomeranz was already covered here, but just as a refresher, he struggled consistently after coming over as the key piece in the Ubaldo Jimenez trade in 2011, and was ultimately traded to Oakland for Brett Anderson. Pomeranz has been excellent out of the bullpen and occasionally as a spot starter for the A's the last two years.

Several former members of the Rockies bullpen look to pitch in the
2015 playoffs.

• Brett Anderson, mentioned above as the Rockies return for Drew Pomeranz, pitched in just 8 games for the Rockies in 2014 due to recurring injury problems. The Rockies elected to not re-sign him following the year, and the Los Angeles Dodgers signed him as a free agent in the offseason. Anderson has finally stayed healthy this year, and has been the number 3 pitcher behind one of the best single season 1-2 starting pitching combos in baseball history. He will likely be starting Game 3 of the 2015 NLDS for the Dodgers. 

• Juan Nicasio was a below average but reliable back end starter for the Rockies from 2011-2013. After spending a good portion of 2014 in the minors, the Rockies brought him back to try him in the bullpen, where he excelled; Nicasio gave up 1 run across 9 appearances out of the bullpen in September. The division rival Dodgers took note, as they traded a minor league outfielder to the Rockies for him after he was designated for assignment following the 2014 season. Nicasio has been strong out of the bullpen for the Dodgers in 2015, averaging over a strikeout per inning with a FIP of 2.76 across 49 appearances, and he (sensing a theme??) will likely find himself pitching late in playoff games this year.

• Franklin Morales was a decent bullpen arm for the Rockies early in his career before be sent to the Red Sox for cash in 2011, his age 25 season. Frankie had 2+ solid years with the Red Sox, earned a World Series ring with them in 2013, and was brought back by the Rockies in exchange for Johnny Herrera before the 2014 season. The Rockies let him walk following a rough year, and the Royals signed him to pitch out of their bullpen in 2015. He has had the best statistical season of his career with Kansas City in 2015, and (surprise!) will be pitching meaningful innings in playoffs games for the Royals this October.

• Huston Street was a solid but not elite closer in his three years with the Rockies, but with Rex Brothers seemingly ready to become a dominant 9th inning pitcher (...), the Rockies felt they could afford to move him. They traded Street to the San Diego before the 2012 season for the Padres 2007 first round pick, Nick Schmidt, who never made it above the AAA level and is currently a free agent. Meanwhile, Street has made 2 All-Star game appearances since leaving the Rockies, and should the Angels stay hot and sneak into the playoffs, will be pitching meaningful innings in playoff games this October.

• Matt Belisle was perhaps the most consistent member of the Rockies bullpen for the first half of the 2010s, but gradually declining numbers and velocity led to the Rockies granting him free agency following the 2014 season. The Cardinals signed him 3 days later, and Belisle pitched one of the best half-seasons of his career to start 2015 before getting put on the DL in late June. Just activated from the DL last week, Belisle returns to the Cardinals just in time to pitch meaningful innings for St. Louis in the 2015 playoffs.

The list of players who experienced a resurgence following their departure from the Rockies is not limited to the above, nor is it limited to just pitchers. Simply blaming altitude for the systematic failure of pitchers at Coors and subsequent improvement with a different club, gives far too much credit to the organization; the team has finished in the bottom half of all MLB in ERA-, a park and league adjusted advanced metric that takes normalizes for a disadvantageous home environment, in every year since 2011, and in the bottom 5 in MLB in three of those five years.

The team needs to be held accountable, as these players could form a legitimate playoff pitching staff if they were all on the Rockies today. If they don't, the above list will just continue to grow, starting with Jhoulys Chacin in 2016.

Presenting Two Awards on Persistent Futility: The Culby and The Bondie

         The minimum innings pitched and minimum plate appearance requirements for ratio based statistical leaders mainly serve to ensure the most deserving player receives the award at the end of the year; that is, to prevent some hot-hitting September call-up from winning the batting title. The consequences on the low end of the qualified leaders list can be just as interesting, however. 

Rarely will a player spend an entire year in the majors getting regular at bats or innings despite a near replacement level performance. Young players will get sent to the minors and fall short of the minimum requirements, while struggling veterans will get a pity DL trip for something like shoulder fatigue, or just be outright waived. But the guys who hang around the entire season despite their persistent futility deserve recognition.

I present two awards to acknowledge those players who were not quite bad enough, and just durable enough, to fall short of their respective minimum requirements:

Charlie Culberson and Jeremy Bonderman

The Culby Award, given to the player each year who has the lowest batting average among those who qualify (502 plate appearances, or 3.1 per game). Although Rob Deer may be a more deserving namesake, this award is in honor of our very own Charlie Culberson, who somehow spent all of 2014 in the majors for the highest scoring team in the National League and finished with a .195 batting average and -0.9 WAR. Although he fell short of the necessary plate appearances to qualify, that .195 beat out qualified winner Chris Davis, and if offensive achievements by Rockies players are cheapened by Coors Field, then offensive ineptitude should be considered even more abysmal than it normally would. Hence, the Culby award.

The Bondie Award, given to the player each year with the highest ERA among those who qualify (162 IP, or 1 inning per game). This award is named for the very impressive Jeremy Bonderman, who never had a single season ERA below 4 despite 8 years of being an important rotation member for the Detroit Tigers, which included two opening day starts. 

Culbie and Bondie Award Winners since 2000

Let's break down the Culby/Bondie winners since 2000:

• The Culby winners are a nice mix of Charlie Culberson types (Punto, Barmes, Relaford) who were likely kept around for the gloves, and the usual power hitter/high K rate mashers. 

• The Bondie winners are a more diverse group, so it is harder to pinpoint a particular reason why they would have all accumulated the minimum required innings to qualify. The primary unifying factor is playing for lousy teams: only the 2001 Astros, 2011 Tigers, and 2013 Dodgers made the playoffs with the Bondie winner.

Two time Culbie winners, Carlos Peña and Nick Swisher.

• Jose Lima may seem like a worthy namesake for the Bondie award, as he is the only multiple-time winner since 2000, but he had several excellent years in the late 90s, including an All-Star appearance and 4th place Cy Young finish in 1999.

• An interesting absence of 2010s Rockies from the Bondie award winners. They did have two regular 2012 starters (Christian Friedrich and Jeremy Guthrie) who would have topped Ricky Romero's 5.77 had they qualified, but only Jeff Francis had over even 100 innings for the Rockies that year.

• There is decent all-star representation from both groups, as 5 of the 13 Culby winners have combined to appear in 9 all star games, while 8 of the 14 Bondie winners have combined to appear in 12 all-star games. Vernon Wells is the lone 3-time all star of either group.

• Tim Salmon is the only member of either group to win a major award, taking home AL Rookie of the Year in 1993.

• Nobody, at least since 2000, has made the World Series with either the Culby or Bondie winner.

The race for the 2015 Bondie award is going to come down to the wire. Teammates Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza have been going back and forth for the lead, but with Garza done for the year and Lohse relegated to bullpen duties, the door is open for a late-season surge. Drew Hutchinson is next in line, with his 13-4 win-loss record. Luis Valbuena and Adam LaRoche are battling for the Culby award, with Valbuena's .210 average currently holding a 1 point lead, but with neither a lock to get regular at bats the rest of the way, NL Rookie of the Year candidate Joc Pederson could make history by winning the Culby Award in addition to an actually prestigious award in the same year!

It takes a special type of player to win a Culby or Bondie award, and hopefully going forward these experts in persistent futility will get the recognition they deserve.

The Rockies have nothing left to show for the Ubaldo trade, so was it worth it?

             With the Rockies recent designation of Matt McBride, the team officially has nothing left to show for their blockbuster 2011 trade of Ubaldo Jimenez. The deal to Cleveland brought Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joe Gardner, and McBride to Denver; let's take a look back at net contribution of the four, and any players the Rockies acquired in subsequent deals including them.

The easy one is infielder Joe Gardner, as the Indians' 3rd round pick in 2009 has yet to appear above the AA level for any organization. He was released as a member of the Tulsa Drillers before the 2014 season, and over the course of that year spent time in the Cubs and Braves organizations. He received a 50 game suspension for a second positive drug test prior to the 2015 season and was promptly released by the Braves. He has since spent the 2015 season playing for the independent Lancaster Barnstormers of the Atlantic League of Professional Baseball.

Matt McBride, the lone position player connected to the trade to contribute in the majors for the Rockies, made brief appearances in 2012, 2014, and 2015. His 0 for 4 performance in his last day as a Rockie, across both games of a doubleheader against Arizona on September 1st, dropped his career batting average to .199. In his 158 plate apperances, McBride hit 4 home runs and had more strikeouts (33) than hits (30).

Alex White had the misfortune of the majority of his starts coming during the embarrassing 6-man rotation stretch of 2012. He compiled a 6.30 ERA over 27 starts with the Rockies before being traded to the Houston Astros for Wilton Lopez and Jose Monzon. Monzon never appeared above the short season A level before being released. Lopez was mediocre out of the Rockies surprisingly decent bullpen in 2013, and four abysmal appearances to begin the 2014 season led to his demotion. He spent the rest of 2014 in AAA and was released by the Rockies at the end of that year.

Drew Pomeranz was supposed to be the key piece of the trade for the Rockies, and gave the fans some hope after pitching well in 3 of his 4 starts during his initial September call-up in 2011. The hopes were quickly dashed however, as he spent the majority of 2012 in the bigs, and much like Alex White and the rest of the staff, he could never string together a series of solid starts as a member of the ridiculous 6-man rotation. Pomeranz began 2013 in the minors, had 4 awful starts after his call-up in late June, and did not return to the majors until September, when he yielded just 1 hit across 4 relief appearances. This apparently increased his value just enough for the Rockies to receive an offer to their liking, as they traded Pomeranz for Brett Anderson following the 2013 season. The promising but oft-injured Anderson was (surprise!) hurt during his third start of 2014, and only ended up making 8 starts that year. Despite his solid numbers across those 8 games, the Rockies declined his option, allowing him to enter free agency and ultimately get signed by the Dodgers.

For those who are not keeping track at home, here are the numbers of everyone the Rockies got for Ubaldo:

It was easy for Rockies fans to say the trade was a win after Pomeranz's promising start in September 2011 and Ubaldo's rough first half season with Cleveland, but Jimenez nearly matched his phenomenal 2010 numbers in 2013 while single-handedly carrying the Indians into the playoffs, and has shown flashes of the same with Baltimore this year. That is in addition to the nearly 2 more wins (and counting) that Ubaldo has been worth than his replacements were for Colorado.

Now that it can be easily concluded that the Rockies first blockbuster trade was a failure, it is hard to be hopeful that the recent Tulo trade will have a different result. Given the Blue Jays' dominance since acquiring Tulo, and his unreal 1.3 WAR in his first month north of the border, we may need Jeff Hoffman to turn into a Cy Young contender to have any hope of that deal paying off.

The Quality Start: A stat that reveals a lot about the Rockies

Fewest team Quality Starts by season since 2010

Through 110 games, the Rockies have 38 total Quality Starts (games in which the starting pitcher goes at least 6 innings and gives up 3 or fewer runs), the lowest in all of baseball, trailing the MLB's current basement dwelling Phillies by 6. Although we are in an era of ignoring Wins and ERAs in favor of xFIPs and wOBAs, the fact that this would be the Rockies' 5th straight year with the fewest Quality Starts in the National League summarizes their abysmal pitching this decade.

If they keep up their current pace, the Rockies will have the second fewest Quality Starts by a team since the 2010 season with 56. Of course, this is still 29 more QSs than the shockingly bad 2012 Rockies (who were hilariously led by Rex Brothers in both wins, with 8, and strikeouts, with 83... more on this later in the week).

Rockies yearly Quality Starts since 2000. *=Projection as
of August 11th, 2015.

One might be tempted to blame their consistent last place ranking on the 81 games a year they play at the best hitters park in the league. Although logical, this is easily refuted by looking at their end of year rank in the statistic for the previous decade. Although near the bottom more often than not, the Rockies were never among the 3 teams with the fewest Quality Starts from 2000-2010; they even finished in the top half of the league three times during that stretch. Since 2011, the Rockies have finished in the bottom 3 every year. Clearly the team has been capable of accumulating a league average number of Quality Starts in recent years, and something systematic beyond the altitude and bad injury luck is going on.

Top 10 Win Percentage in Quality Starts, 2011-2015

Additionally, the Rockies are one of the worst teams in baseball at taking advantage of their pitchers' quality starts. Since 2011, the Rockies have won 65% of their games in which their pitcher gave them a Quality Start, good for the 23rd best in baseball. Absolute Quality Start numbers may be misleading to look at, especially with a team like the Rockies and their embarrassing 2012 numbers, but win percentage in Quality Starts, a number independent of the total Quality Starts a team gets, would likely reveal a combination of which teams perform the best in low scoring games and which have the most reliable bullpen in low-scoring, close games. 

Bottom 10 Win Percentage in Quality Starts, 2011-2015

Naturally, the top 10 from 2011-2015 in QS win percentage are among the teams that have had the most consistent success over that stretch. So, although it is easy for the Rockies to blame their horrible pitching the last 5 years on altitude and bad luck, there remains a clear systematic issue with the pitching all the way through the rotation and bullpen.

Happy Gray Day! How important is a strong debut from the Rockies top prospect?

Starting pitchers drafted by the Rockies
in the first round since 2005.
* = supplemental 1st round pick

        The Rockies' 2013 first round pick, Jonathan Gray, will make his two-months-overdue debut against the Mariners on Tuesday at Coors Field. Many fans wished for his call up with every passing week over the last several series, which included a stretch of 10 straight starts with 3 ER or fewer given up by Gray for the Albuquerque Isotopes, but, as Rockies senior director of player development Zach Wilson told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, the Rockies expect him to be their ace of the future, and delayed his debut accordingly.

The wait is over, and Rockies fans will finally get a glimmer of hope for the future of the franchise. But as many long time followers will know, this is a routine we have been through before, as the team has drafted a pitcher in the first round of every draft since 2005. To avoid any premature conclusions on the expectations of Jon Gray based on his debut tomorrow, let's look back at how each of their previous first round picks performed following their early selections by the Rockies:


1. Chaz Roe - 2005 Draft - 32nd overall pick

Roe never appeared in the majors for the Rockies, instead getting traded to the Seattle Mariners for one of the several mediocre second basemen spanning the gap between Clint Barmes and DJ LeMahieu, Jose Lopez. After spending a few years bouncing around the league, Roe has settled into a solid role in the Orioles bullpen in 2015.


2. Greg Reynolds - 2006 Draft - 2nd overall pick

In one of the most glaring whiffs in a Rockies draft history full of them, the club selected Greg Reynolds second overall in 2006, while the following names were taken among the several picks immediately following: Evan Longoria, Brandon Morrow, Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer. Ironically, two players with far fewer accolades than the prior list also taken in the top 13 of the 2006 draft eventually found their way onto the Rockies roster: Drew Stubbs and Tyler Colvin. Reynolds had two completely forgettable stints in the show for Colorado, one in 2008 and another in 2011, compiling an ERA north of 7 before the Rockies traded him for their manager at the time Jim Tracy's son, Chad, who never appeared in the bigs for them.


3. Casey Weathers - 2007 Draft - 8th overall pick

In another devastating miss, Weathers was drafted two picks before 2014 postseason hero Madison Bumgarner (although it is fun to imagine an alternate universe in which the Rockies drafted MadBum and the Giants Weathers, leading to a 2014 World Series MVP for Weathers). Weathers had Tommy John surgery at the end of his first full professional season in 2007, and was ultimately included in the Ian Stewart trade that brought Colvin and LeMahieu to Colorado. He has still yet to make his major league debut as he pitches for the Indians recently excellently renamed AA affiliate Akron RubberDucks, but his contribution to bringing DJ to the Rockies makes him perhaps the most valuable first round starting pitcher draft pick in the last 10 years for the Rockies.


4. Christian Friedrich - 2008 Draft - 25th overall pick

Friedrich found himself ranked as highly as the 33rd overall prospect in baseball prior to the 2010 season, but by the time he made his debut in 2012, it was clear his ceiling was a back end of the rotation starter. He made a strong debut, striking out 7 Padres over 6 innings of 1 run ball on May 9th, followed by a 10 strikeout performance in San Francisco. His ERA ballooned to over 5 following his home debut in his third start after getting roughed up by Seattle, but his strong early performance bought him a regular spot in the rotation before a stress fracture in his lower back ended his season in early August. After missing nearly all of the 2013, Friedrich struggled in 2014 before carving out a solid role in the Rockies bullpen this year.


5. Tyler Matzek - 2009 Draft - 11th overall pick

In one of the most memorable Rockies top pitching prospect debuts, Matzek excelled in 7 inning against the Braves on June 11th of 2014, and remained a consistent member of the rotation for the rest of the season. He was expected to be a major part of the Rockies rotation in 2015, psychological woes have put his future with the team in question.

Christian Friedrich and Eddie Butler are the only two former
first round picks of the Rockies currently contributing on the
big league pitching staff.

6. Peter Tago - 2010 Draft - 47th overall pick

Who? Tago was selected by the White Sox in the 2014 Rule 5 draft and has yet to make his major league debut.


7. Tyler Anderson - 2011 Draft - 20th overall pick

Thankfully all stars Jose Fernandez and Sonny Gray were selected just before Anderson in the 2011 draft, making that year slightly less devastating than the previous ones. Anderson has shown very promising stuff in the minors since joining the organization, prompting the Rockies to add him to their 40 man roster this past offseason. A stress fracture in his elbow has kept Anderson on the sideline for all of 2015 so far.


8. Eddie Butler - 2012 Draft - 46th overall pick

Expected by many to be the back end of a deadly 1-2 punch with Jon Gray prior to his debut, Butler beat Gray to the big leagues in early 2014, and after a forgettable debut was placed on the DL for the majority of the remained of the year before making his second start. The only former first round pick currently in their rotation, Butler has seen mixed results so far in 2015.



Rockies fans are rightfully excited for the debut of Jon Gray, as the past 10 years of first round picks have provided nothing but disappointment, injuries, or missed expectations. But as the Matzek, Friedrich, and Butler debuts show, early performance often has very little correlation with eventual performance and contribution to the club. Even if Gray struggles in his first stint with the Rockies, he represents an extremely rare piece of pitching hope to dig the team out of this 5 year and counting rut.