The Quality Start: A stat that reveals a lot about the Rockies

Fewest team Quality Starts by season since 2010

Through 110 games, the Rockies have 38 total Quality Starts (games in which the starting pitcher goes at least 6 innings and gives up 3 or fewer runs), the lowest in all of baseball, trailing the MLB's current basement dwelling Phillies by 6. Although we are in an era of ignoring Wins and ERAs in favor of xFIPs and wOBAs, the fact that this would be the Rockies' 5th straight year with the fewest Quality Starts in the National League summarizes their abysmal pitching this decade.

If they keep up their current pace, the Rockies will have the second fewest Quality Starts by a team since the 2010 season with 56. Of course, this is still 29 more QSs than the shockingly bad 2012 Rockies (who were hilariously led by Rex Brothers in both wins, with 8, and strikeouts, with 83... more on this later in the week).

Rockies yearly Quality Starts since 2000. *=Projection as
of August 11th, 2015.

One might be tempted to blame their consistent last place ranking on the 81 games a year they play at the best hitters park in the league. Although logical, this is easily refuted by looking at their end of year rank in the statistic for the previous decade. Although near the bottom more often than not, the Rockies were never among the 3 teams with the fewest Quality Starts from 2000-2010; they even finished in the top half of the league three times during that stretch. Since 2011, the Rockies have finished in the bottom 3 every year. Clearly the team has been capable of accumulating a league average number of Quality Starts in recent years, and something systematic beyond the altitude and bad injury luck is going on.

Top 10 Win Percentage in Quality Starts, 2011-2015

Additionally, the Rockies are one of the worst teams in baseball at taking advantage of their pitchers' quality starts. Since 2011, the Rockies have won 65% of their games in which their pitcher gave them a Quality Start, good for the 23rd best in baseball. Absolute Quality Start numbers may be misleading to look at, especially with a team like the Rockies and their embarrassing 2012 numbers, but win percentage in Quality Starts, a number independent of the total Quality Starts a team gets, would likely reveal a combination of which teams perform the best in low scoring games and which have the most reliable bullpen in low-scoring, close games. 

Bottom 10 Win Percentage in Quality Starts, 2011-2015

Naturally, the top 10 from 2011-2015 in QS win percentage are among the teams that have had the most consistent success over that stretch. So, although it is easy for the Rockies to blame their horrible pitching the last 5 years on altitude and bad luck, there remains a clear systematic issue with the pitching all the way through the rotation and bullpen.

Happy Gray Day! How important is a strong debut from the Rockies top prospect?

Starting pitchers drafted by the Rockies
in the first round since 2005.
* = supplemental 1st round pick

        The Rockies' 2013 first round pick, Jonathan Gray, will make his two-months-overdue debut against the Mariners on Tuesday at Coors Field. Many fans wished for his call up with every passing week over the last several series, which included a stretch of 10 straight starts with 3 ER or fewer given up by Gray for the Albuquerque Isotopes, but, as Rockies senior director of player development Zach Wilson told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, the Rockies expect him to be their ace of the future, and delayed his debut accordingly.

The wait is over, and Rockies fans will finally get a glimmer of hope for the future of the franchise. But as many long time followers will know, this is a routine we have been through before, as the team has drafted a pitcher in the first round of every draft since 2005. To avoid any premature conclusions on the expectations of Jon Gray based on his debut tomorrow, let's look back at how each of their previous first round picks performed following their early selections by the Rockies:


1. Chaz Roe - 2005 Draft - 32nd overall pick

Roe never appeared in the majors for the Rockies, instead getting traded to the Seattle Mariners for one of the several mediocre second basemen spanning the gap between Clint Barmes and DJ LeMahieu, Jose Lopez. After spending a few years bouncing around the league, Roe has settled into a solid role in the Orioles bullpen in 2015.


2. Greg Reynolds - 2006 Draft - 2nd overall pick

In one of the most glaring whiffs in a Rockies draft history full of them, the club selected Greg Reynolds second overall in 2006, while the following names were taken among the several picks immediately following: Evan Longoria, Brandon Morrow, Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer. Ironically, two players with far fewer accolades than the prior list also taken in the top 13 of the 2006 draft eventually found their way onto the Rockies roster: Drew Stubbs and Tyler Colvin. Reynolds had two completely forgettable stints in the show for Colorado, one in 2008 and another in 2011, compiling an ERA north of 7 before the Rockies traded him for their manager at the time Jim Tracy's son, Chad, who never appeared in the bigs for them.


3. Casey Weathers - 2007 Draft - 8th overall pick

In another devastating miss, Weathers was drafted two picks before 2014 postseason hero Madison Bumgarner (although it is fun to imagine an alternate universe in which the Rockies drafted MadBum and the Giants Weathers, leading to a 2014 World Series MVP for Weathers). Weathers had Tommy John surgery at the end of his first full professional season in 2007, and was ultimately included in the Ian Stewart trade that brought Colvin and LeMahieu to Colorado. He has still yet to make his major league debut as he pitches for the Indians recently excellently renamed AA affiliate Akron RubberDucks, but his contribution to bringing DJ to the Rockies makes him perhaps the most valuable first round starting pitcher draft pick in the last 10 years for the Rockies.


4. Christian Friedrich - 2008 Draft - 25th overall pick

Friedrich found himself ranked as highly as the 33rd overall prospect in baseball prior to the 2010 season, but by the time he made his debut in 2012, it was clear his ceiling was a back end of the rotation starter. He made a strong debut, striking out 7 Padres over 6 innings of 1 run ball on May 9th, followed by a 10 strikeout performance in San Francisco. His ERA ballooned to over 5 following his home debut in his third start after getting roughed up by Seattle, but his strong early performance bought him a regular spot in the rotation before a stress fracture in his lower back ended his season in early August. After missing nearly all of the 2013, Friedrich struggled in 2014 before carving out a solid role in the Rockies bullpen this year.


5. Tyler Matzek - 2009 Draft - 11th overall pick

In one of the most memorable Rockies top pitching prospect debuts, Matzek excelled in 7 inning against the Braves on June 11th of 2014, and remained a consistent member of the rotation for the rest of the season. He was expected to be a major part of the Rockies rotation in 2015, psychological woes have put his future with the team in question.

Christian Friedrich and Eddie Butler are the only two former
first round picks of the Rockies currently contributing on the
big league pitching staff.

6. Peter Tago - 2010 Draft - 47th overall pick

Who? Tago was selected by the White Sox in the 2014 Rule 5 draft and has yet to make his major league debut.


7. Tyler Anderson - 2011 Draft - 20th overall pick

Thankfully all stars Jose Fernandez and Sonny Gray were selected just before Anderson in the 2011 draft, making that year slightly less devastating than the previous ones. Anderson has shown very promising stuff in the minors since joining the organization, prompting the Rockies to add him to their 40 man roster this past offseason. A stress fracture in his elbow has kept Anderson on the sideline for all of 2015 so far.


8. Eddie Butler - 2012 Draft - 46th overall pick

Expected by many to be the back end of a deadly 1-2 punch with Jon Gray prior to his debut, Butler beat Gray to the big leagues in early 2014, and after a forgettable debut was placed on the DL for the majority of the remained of the year before making his second start. The only former first round pick currently in their rotation, Butler has seen mixed results so far in 2015.



Rockies fans are rightfully excited for the debut of Jon Gray, as the past 10 years of first round picks have provided nothing but disappointment, injuries, or missed expectations. But as the Matzek, Friedrich, and Butler debuts show, early performance often has very little correlation with eventual performance and contribution to the club. Even if Gray struggles in his first stint with the Rockies, he represents an extremely rare piece of pitching hope to dig the team out of this 5 year and counting rut.

The Rockies-Cardinals Series, July 30th-August 2nd 2015: A four game intro to the post-Tulo era.

               As a Rockies fan stuck in St. Louis who formerly attended a dozen or more games at 20th and Blake each year, I take full advantage of my infrequent opportunities to see the Rockies in person by attending every game in their annual series at Busch Stadium. The first two years of this tradition had already lowered my expectations to nearly zero; the Rockies' 1-5 record included the unforgettable May 2013 game where Eric Young Jr. led off the 1st with a broken bat single, only to have Shelby Miller proceed to retire the next 27 straight hitters. Last year consisted of a swift 3-game sweep in mid-September featuring a healthy dose of Rafael Ynoa, Matt McBride, and other Culberson-esque AAA-caliber players. So when Tulo was shipped to Toronto 48 hours before their arrival in St. Louis, I knew this would be a particularly difficult weekend to wear purple among the unrelenting self-proclaimed best fans in baseball.

Jose Reyes does not seem to fit in. He did not address or
acknowledge any Rockies fans, despite many trying to get
his attention.

Sitting in the front row next to the Rockies dugout as I always do for one of the games of the series, I watched one of the most devastating losses in recent memory on Thursday. After outplaying the Cardinals for most of the game, taking advantage of their defensive mistakes and getting contributions at the plate from everyone up and down the lineup (including a 2-run homer from starting pitcher Chris Rusin), the Rockies turned to closer John Axford to protect a two-run lead in the 9th. I respect Walt for having faith in his players and allowing them to work through rough patches, in sharp contrast with the Jim Tracy-era Rockies who might yank Juan Nicasio from the rotation after two bad starts or send Dexter Fowler to the Springs after a single rough week. But Axford had given up runs in his last four appearances, resulting in three blown saves and another loss, and it would have been four blown saves except that he entered one game with the Rockies and Rangers tied at 8.

Thank you Jorge for being an actual major league caliber pitcher.

Axford's final warmup pitch skipped in the dirt and went past Nick Hundley all the way to the backstop. Correctly assuming this meant the 9th would not be a smooth finish to the game, I expected Justin Miller, who had been warming up the previous inning before the Rockies regained the lead, to be ready to enter the game (more on him later). But after Axford began the inning by allowing a walk and then a base hit, it was clear that Walt was going to let the implosion proceed, as nobody stirred in the Rockies bullpen. The lone out of the inning for the Cardinals, a sharp liner from Yadier Molina to Blackmon in center, probably should have ended the game, but third base coach Jose Oquendo wisely declined the risk of sending the tagging Kolten Wong home, as he surely expected Axford to complete the job for them. Ax promptly did just that by walking the next batter, Greg Garcia, to push the winning run home.

The Rockies trading away one of the best players in the league for an older, more expensive, and far less valuable shortstop and some middling prospects made it clear they have no expectation to win right now, but the events of Thursday night made it hard to believe that they even want to win on any given night. Walt would rather hang a veteran reliever out to dry under the guise of "allowing him to work through a rough patch," while a young recently promoted Justin Miller was likely dying to prove himself in a high pressure situation to be a dependable member of the bullpen. Sure enough, the following night when Michael Wacha was making sure the Rockies had no chance, Miller came in to the 7-0 game in the 8th and nearly had a 9 pitch, 3 strikeout inning, if not for Pete Kozma flying out on Miller's 0-2 pitch. I find it hard to believe that Walt leaving Axford in on Thursday was in John's, or the team's, best interest.

The Rockies were at least able to take one game of the series, thanks to Jorge De La Rosa being an actual major league pitcher. One of the main takeaways from the series was seeing an undeniably decent pitcher who would likely be a number 4 starter on most teams look like a legitimate Cy Young candidate compared to what we've come to expect over the last few years.

The Cardinals walked off on the Rockies again on Sunday, with some more questionable late inning managerial decisions to thank. Scott Oberg worked out of trouble in the 8th, so naturally with the game still tied going in to the bottom of the 9th, Walt left the ball in Oberg's hand. With one out and a runner on second, Randal Grichuk hit a slow roller up the middle to Jose Reyes, who double clutched before throwing to first and, for about the 5th time in the series, failed to make a play that Tulowitzki would have completed easily. The Rockies put the shift on for the next batter, new Cardinal Brandon Moss, leaving Nolan Arenado by himself on the left side of the infield. Standing about halfway between second and third, Nolan could be seen yelling at the dugout with his arms up, presumably wondering what to do about Jason Heyward on third base and his 15 foot lead. It ultimately did not matter, as Brandon Moss's easy double play ball went right through the hole recently vacated by Jose Reyes to give the Cardinals the win.

Tommy Kahnle can't wait for his winter vacation to begin.

I will continue going to every game when the Rockies visit St. Louis, but it is becoming more and more difficult to get excited about. The Rockies got about one third the value for Tulo that they would have gotten two years ago, because the front office stubbornly thought they would be competing by now, and it's clear that they are not any closer than they were during the despicable four-man rotation stretch. Maybe Jon Gray, Mike Nikorak, and Jeff Hoffman will anchor a rotation that carries the Rockies back to the playoffs in 2017. Or perhaps they will continue to ruin prospects and waste promising careers while blaming the altitude and coincidental bad injury luck for their never-ending struggles. Either way, it's a rough time to be a Rockies fan.



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