Happy Gray Day! How important is a strong debut from the Rockies top prospect?

Starting pitchers drafted by the Rockies
in the first round since 2005.
* = supplemental 1st round pick

        The Rockies' 2013 first round pick, Jonathan Gray, will make his two-months-overdue debut against the Mariners on Tuesday at Coors Field. Many fans wished for his call up with every passing week over the last several series, which included a stretch of 10 straight starts with 3 ER or fewer given up by Gray for the Albuquerque Isotopes, but, as Rockies senior director of player development Zach Wilson told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, the Rockies expect him to be their ace of the future, and delayed his debut accordingly.

The wait is over, and Rockies fans will finally get a glimmer of hope for the future of the franchise. But as many long time followers will know, this is a routine we have been through before, as the team has drafted a pitcher in the first round of every draft since 2005. To avoid any premature conclusions on the expectations of Jon Gray based on his debut tomorrow, let's look back at how each of their previous first round picks performed following their early selections by the Rockies:


1. Chaz Roe - 2005 Draft - 32nd overall pick

Roe never appeared in the majors for the Rockies, instead getting traded to the Seattle Mariners for one of the several mediocre second basemen spanning the gap between Clint Barmes and DJ LeMahieu, Jose Lopez. After spending a few years bouncing around the league, Roe has settled into a solid role in the Orioles bullpen in 2015.


2. Greg Reynolds - 2006 Draft - 2nd overall pick

In one of the most glaring whiffs in a Rockies draft history full of them, the club selected Greg Reynolds second overall in 2006, while the following names were taken among the several picks immediately following: Evan Longoria, Brandon Morrow, Andrew Miller, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer. Ironically, two players with far fewer accolades than the prior list also taken in the top 13 of the 2006 draft eventually found their way onto the Rockies roster: Drew Stubbs and Tyler Colvin. Reynolds had two completely forgettable stints in the show for Colorado, one in 2008 and another in 2011, compiling an ERA north of 7 before the Rockies traded him for their manager at the time Jim Tracy's son, Chad, who never appeared in the bigs for them.


3. Casey Weathers - 2007 Draft - 8th overall pick

In another devastating miss, Weathers was drafted two picks before 2014 postseason hero Madison Bumgarner (although it is fun to imagine an alternate universe in which the Rockies drafted MadBum and the Giants Weathers, leading to a 2014 World Series MVP for Weathers). Weathers had Tommy John surgery at the end of his first full professional season in 2007, and was ultimately included in the Ian Stewart trade that brought Colvin and LeMahieu to Colorado. He has still yet to make his major league debut as he pitches for the Indians recently excellently renamed AA affiliate Akron RubberDucks, but his contribution to bringing DJ to the Rockies makes him perhaps the most valuable first round starting pitcher draft pick in the last 10 years for the Rockies.


4. Christian Friedrich - 2008 Draft - 25th overall pick

Friedrich found himself ranked as highly as the 33rd overall prospect in baseball prior to the 2010 season, but by the time he made his debut in 2012, it was clear his ceiling was a back end of the rotation starter. He made a strong debut, striking out 7 Padres over 6 innings of 1 run ball on May 9th, followed by a 10 strikeout performance in San Francisco. His ERA ballooned to over 5 following his home debut in his third start after getting roughed up by Seattle, but his strong early performance bought him a regular spot in the rotation before a stress fracture in his lower back ended his season in early August. After missing nearly all of the 2013, Friedrich struggled in 2014 before carving out a solid role in the Rockies bullpen this year.


5. Tyler Matzek - 2009 Draft - 11th overall pick

In one of the most memorable Rockies top pitching prospect debuts, Matzek excelled in 7 inning against the Braves on June 11th of 2014, and remained a consistent member of the rotation for the rest of the season. He was expected to be a major part of the Rockies rotation in 2015, psychological woes have put his future with the team in question.

Christian Friedrich and Eddie Butler are the only two former
first round picks of the Rockies currently contributing on the
big league pitching staff.

6. Peter Tago - 2010 Draft - 47th overall pick

Who? Tago was selected by the White Sox in the 2014 Rule 5 draft and has yet to make his major league debut.


7. Tyler Anderson - 2011 Draft - 20th overall pick

Thankfully all stars Jose Fernandez and Sonny Gray were selected just before Anderson in the 2011 draft, making that year slightly less devastating than the previous ones. Anderson has shown very promising stuff in the minors since joining the organization, prompting the Rockies to add him to their 40 man roster this past offseason. A stress fracture in his elbow has kept Anderson on the sideline for all of 2015 so far.


8. Eddie Butler - 2012 Draft - 46th overall pick

Expected by many to be the back end of a deadly 1-2 punch with Jon Gray prior to his debut, Butler beat Gray to the big leagues in early 2014, and after a forgettable debut was placed on the DL for the majority of the remained of the year before making his second start. The only former first round pick currently in their rotation, Butler has seen mixed results so far in 2015.



Rockies fans are rightfully excited for the debut of Jon Gray, as the past 10 years of first round picks have provided nothing but disappointment, injuries, or missed expectations. But as the Matzek, Friedrich, and Butler debuts show, early performance often has very little correlation with eventual performance and contribution to the club. Even if Gray struggles in his first stint with the Rockies, he represents an extremely rare piece of pitching hope to dig the team out of this 5 year and counting rut.