Thursday, January 28, 2016

How did the Rays trick the Rockies into giving away Corey Dickerson?

         The Tampa Bay Rays have been the model professional sports franchise over the last decade for staying competitive while being frugal. Amazingly, the Rays have finished higher in the standings in the American League than their payroll ranking every single year since 2008. Except that when you look back at their major moves over the past few years, it is not surprising at all, and the Rockies have given them a great opportunity to keep that streak going by trading them Corey Dickerson for Jake McGee and German Marquez.

Yearly opening payroll ranks and year end ranks for the Rockies and Rays in their respective leagues since 2005. Note that from 2005-2012, there were 14 AL teams and 16 NL teams, with each having 15 since 2013.

         Jake McGee is far from the most notable player the Rays have given away in his prime, although over the last two years he has quietly accumulated some of the most impressive numbers among relievers in all of baseball. Many of their moves involving big name players have arguably been victories for their trade partners, simply in terms of contribution to a team's success (namely James Shields and Wade Davis helping bring a World Series to Kansas City while former top prospect Wil Myers has since been flipped for more prospects). However, as the most frugal team in baseball, sometimes giving up all-stars poised for major salary boosts for promising prospects is necessary for maintaining competitiveness despite the minuscule payroll.

         The Rays spend every offseason seeking out cheap, undervalued but promising players that they can steal in exchange for studs on the rise that they would not be able to afford within a few years anyway. And if they can't find a suitor, they are excellent at assessing when a player will demand far more than he's worth, and simply let him walk without looking back:
  • BJ Upton left the Rays after the 2012 season and signed a 5 year, $75 million deal before falling just short of the Culby award in his first year, with a .184 batting average bested only by Dan Uggla's .179. His ineptitude continued with such severity that he literally started going by a different name before the 2015 season. Given the contract he commanded, the Rays were never going to have a chance to retain him, but it was a major bullet dodged nonetheless.
Everybody won the James Shields/Wade Davis trade.
  • James Shields is a slightly less obvious case, as he and Wade Davis were two of the major components that brought the 2015 World Series to Kansas City, while the remains of that transaction tree for the Rays consist of solid outfielder Steven Souza and pitcher Jake Odorizzi in addition to several still very young prospects. However, Shields' recent major contract with the Padres and Davis' getting a similar significant extension from the Royals demonstrates that, even though the two have performed brilliant since leaving Tampa Bay, the team could never have kept them while maintaining their frugal roster construction.
  • David Price was a postseason hero in 2008 much like the former BJ Upton, but unlike BJ the Rays were able to trade him for some value in return before he was offered one of the biggest contracts in baseball history, netting decent starter Drew Smyly and good prospects Willy Adames and Nick Franklin.
  • Matt Garza, who was originally acquired by the Rays in a similarly frugal move for Delmon Young, was traded to the Cubs after four excellent years in Tampa Bay for Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer, Sam Fuld, Hak-Ju Lee, and Robinson Chirinos. Wow. That trade may end up being this decade's highway robbery of Bartolo for Lee, Sizemore, and Phillips, although Garza's 2015 falling 13 innings short of destroying everyone for the Bondie Award does not lead one to expect him to magically inflate the diameter of his head by 200% and become the best 40+ year old pitcher since Nolan Ryan.
Crawford and Upton. Although the Rays got nothing in return
for either, letting both walk were among their best moves of
the past decade.
  • Carl Crawford, much like BJ Upton, was a longtime beloved Ray who left the team when they wisely recognized he would receive an absurd offer and quickly become a major injury-prone liability for teams who can afford to waste 20 million dollars a year in Boston and Los Angeles.
  • Rafael Soriano, much like Jake McGee, was a dominant closer for the Rays before they let him go to sign a nearly 12 million dollar a year contract to be Mariano Rivera's set up man. Soriano has stayed excellent, but he was ultimately replaced by none other than Jake McGee, who over the next few years made about 10% as much money as Soriano to perform at a similar level. 


         Should Jake McGee miraculously continue his dominant ways at Coors Field, he will likely leave in two years to sign a major deal with a contending, high payroll team. Should he continue to struggle with injuries and go the way of Rex Brothers, the Rockies will have given up a great hitting young outfielder for a half year of blown saves. Given the Rays uncanny ability to year after year send players away at the absolutely perfect time, and get great value in return, we should be concerned that the Rockies just fell right into one of the Rays traps. 

         Honestly, it's surprising such a trade with the Rays did not happened sooner. They are like a chess grandmaster to the Rockies high school kid that thinks he's a hot shot. They dangled a move in front of the Rockies that someone competent would never make, giving the appearance of a move that will help them improve, tricking them into taking the bait. And it's only a matter of time before the Rays' long con becomes apparent, when Jake McGee is off the Rockies and Corey Dickerson is batting cleanup for a playoff team. Best of luck C-Dick, we'll miss you.



         
         

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