The "bullpen by committee" - a solution to the Rockies relief pitching woes

Adam Ottavino has been phenomenal for the Rockies this year. In fact, he leads all major league relief pitchers in WAR, even though he has missed the last two weeks. Since Ott went down on May 27th, the only two relievers who have managed to give the Rockies reliable appearances out of the bullpen are rookie Harrison Musgrave, and Adam's DL-replacement Scott Oberg, who have over that span combined to throw 17 2/3 innings and give up just 4 earned runs (all 4 Musgrave's), despite making a combined $920K this season.

Meanwhile, 2015-2016 Rockies reliever Justin Miller elected free agency after the 2016 season, bounced around the minors for the last year and a half, and has found a new home with the Washington Nationals (on the same minor league/minimum salary as Oberg and Musgrave), where since his call-up two weeks ago has thrown 9 innings, allowed just 1 base runner, and has amassed 17 strikeouts. (Let's ignore the fact that he is sporting an obvious roidbeard.)

Justin Miller, Roidbeard champion, and amazing bargain relief pitcher.

Miller is not a rookie, but during his minor league tenure the last year and a half, he supposedly added a pair of new pitches to his repertoire, effectively neutralizing any prior scouting teams had done on him. Perhaps once scouts get up to speed on his new stuff, he'll stop missing bats and will return to being a fringe major leaguer. But even if that happens in the next few weeks, having 10+ effective appearances from a guy on a league minimum salary has incredible value to a team. Especially when the alternative is taking the Bridich route of signing proven veteran relievers to massive contracts to bolster the bullpen, only to have them implode night after night.

Almost no relievers find sustained success for several straight years. It's such a specific skill set, requires tip-top precision and velocity during every single at bat, that the smallest bit of regression can be the difference between an all-star reliever and a 7+ ERA. Even Ottavino, who had been great for the first 4 years of his career, was a below average pitcher last year before addressing his issues this past offseason. And unless he's one of a handful of relief pitchers from each generation that can maintain success out of the pen for many consecutive years, he'll have another awful year sometime in the near future. Hopefully it's a team besides the Rockies that has paid him $15MM immediately before that happens.

The Bullpen By Committee

The success in limited sample size of Oberg, Musgrave, and Miller presents a new idea for approaching a bullpen. The Rockies 2018 strategy is an undeniable failure, and the amount of money committed to the top bullpen arms gives them such reluctance to make significant changes. But if young or revamped relief pitchers can have a month of great success before the scouting catches up to them, why wouldn't a team just use a "bullpen by committee," rotating through relievers at the league minimum for a month at a time, and immediately moving on from them once the scouts catch up?

At worst, these pitchers would perform at the same level as Bryan Shaw, Chris Rusin, Mike Dunn, et al. have for the Rockies this year. Ideally, you get a few weeks of above average performance, like Justin Miller is currently providing the nationals. And perhaps every once in a while, the resurgence is legitimate and you get a few years of reliable relief pitching from your cheap signee, and move on from them before the inevitable implosion that ultimately finds nearly every relief pitcher, regardless of their peak performance.

Here are the top relievers of 2018 so far, by WAR:

On that list are a few veterans on affordable contracts (Ottavino, Herrera, Doolittle), a few players at or near the league minimum (Jeffress, Hader, Hughes, Treinen, Barnes), and the two undeniable best relief pitchers of this generation. For comparison, here is the complete list of Rockies 2018 relief pitchers, each of whom has made at least 10 appearances so far this year:

Outside of Ottavino and Wade Davis (who had been pitching like an all star until the last couple weeks, and now seems to have had the Rockies bug rub off on him), only the aforementioned Musgrave and Oberg have provided any real positive value to the Rockies bullpen this year, while several players have been majorly negative. 

Given the vulnerability and inconsistency of all relief pitchers, is it EVER worth the $7M+ it takes to get a "solid" veteran relief pitcher to bolster the bullpen? Especially considering that at worst, the alternative is cycling through a few Brooks Pounders' until you find a Richard Bleier or a Justin Miller. Perhaps every once in a while you'll get lucky with an Ottavino or Kelvin Herrera, but even a half or full season of that may not be worth it if they turn into a Bryan Shaw or Mike Dunn before the contract runs up. And unless you know for sure you're getting one of the top relievers of the generation, who will be rock solid night after night for years to come, there is no excuse for spending such an exorbitant amount on a bullpen arm. 

Instead, the Rockies should move forward piecing together a bullpen of minimum salaries, moving on from the lost causes that are the majority of their bullpen right now. Maybe it wouldn't pan out or provide success in the grind of a playoff run, but it would at least give them a chance to stay in the race, instead of crippling the team financially for years to come and requiring Bud Black to run the same washed up arms out there every single game. And maybe they'd get lucky and find a young arm or a revamped veteran that can bring the Rockies long-awaited October success while not holding the organization hostage financially over the duration of a long expensive contract.

How Jeff Bridich and the Rockies SHOULD Have Handled the Ryan Rolison Tweet Situation

As all Colorado Rockies fans on social media now know, soon after Ryan Rolison was made the 1st overall Rockies pick in the 2018 MLB draft, the story broke of a terrible tweet that Rolison made in November 2012, when he was 15 years old, wishing that someone who shoot then-President Barack Obama.

Once Rolison was made aware of the sports Twitter world's discovery of said Tweet, he immediately deleted it.  But, by then, that was a bit like closing the barn door after the horse had escaped.  To be honest, GFW believes that Rolison himself had forgotten that he ever tweeted such a comment; it probably was a stupid attempt to be funny or an immature attempt to curry favor with people who he felt held such abhorrent beliefs, and he likely forgot he ever even tweeted it until someone pointed it out to him AFTER he was drafted.  However, it was a threat against the president of the United States, no matter how misguided or immature or the age of the person making the tweet.

And let's be blunt.  A tweet that implies a threat to the life of the country's president - particularly the country's FIRST black president - is FAR worse than a tweet quoting rap lyrics, even if the rap lyrics use an unacceptable racial slur.  It must also be noted that Rolison elected to play college baseball at the university most associated with flying the Confederate Battle flag, something largely irrelevant to every single other student-athlete at the University of Mississippi... until a tweet pops up where that student-athlete has threatened the life of the first black President.

By Tuesday, both Rolison and the Rockies organization had been asked about unfortunate Tweet and mainstream media were reporting Rolison's mea culpa, and the Rockies organization's full support of Rolison and defense of his character going forward.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ryan-rolison-colorado-rockies-mlb-draft-pick-shoot-barack-obama-tweet-2018-06-05/

Although the above (and other) media reports claim that the Rockies organization vets each potential draftee's social media history - which, frankly, EVERY organization in EVERY sport or business should do with all impactful and expensive new hires - GFW does not believe that the Rockies organization actually did this with Rolison.  It is nonsensical for the Rockies organization to imply that they discovered Rolison's tweet from 2012, but did not ask him to delete it prior to drafting him, then allowed it to be "discovered" by other enterprising sports media folks.  Either the organization is lying to its fans, or it is utterly incompetent in both social media AND public relations.

So... here is what SHOULD have happened.

Let's assume the Rockies are NOT competent enough to discover Rolison's tweet or are stupid enough not to ask him to delete it BEFORE he is drafted.

First, once the tweet is discovered, he is asked to delete it.  Check.

Then, when the inevitable questions are asked, the Rockies have helped Rolison make a statement that takes accountability, admits a youthful indiscretion, shows remorse, and details a plan forward to address the heart of the issue.  GFW would suggest that Rolison make THIS statement:

"When I was 15, I made a stupid tweet about President Obama that I had no idea what it really meant.  It was immature, inappropriate, and most of all, stupid, and I regret that I did it.  I have no idea why I did such a stupid thing, but I am thankful that the Colorado Rockies have enough belief in both my pitching and character to draft me in the 1st round.  Not only will the Rockies help me with my pitching, but they also have promised to help me learn WHY I would ever have made such a stupid decision, and I have accepted their generous offer of counseling and look forward to learning about myself and why I would have made that decision, so that I will never make such a stupid decision again."

Further, the Colorado Rockies should have been proactive with their own response, rather than the typical and meaningless "we can just move on" that concluded Rockies GM Jeff Bridich's conference call comments about Rolison's tweet.  Although the sycophantic local media, always carrying water for the Rockies organization in fear of having their access denied should they be overly critical, will accept "we can just move on" as the final word on the subject, they should not.

Here is what the Rockies SHOULD have said:  "The Colorado Rockies organization became aware of 1st round pick Ryan Rolison's abhorrent tweet from 2012 in which he implied a threat on the life of President Barack Obama immediately after we selected Ryan.  While Ryan was 15 years old when he made that tweet, in our careful vetting of Ryan as a potential Colorado Rockies team member, we discovered absolutely nothing in his character like that.  Nonetheless, the Colorado Rockies organization has offered, and Ryan has accepted, counseling that will determine why he made such a foolish and immature decision in 2012.  Clearly, both the Colorado Rockies and Ryan are confident that Ryan can learn, through introspective counseling, why he made such a statement, and are confident that he will never make a mistake of that magnitude again."

Instead, "we can just move on"... right? Nothing to see here...

O'Dowd and Geivett brought the current Rockies success, while Bridich may trigger a regression

When the Rockies bounced back from some of their most embarrassing years in franchise history with a playoff appearance in 2017, fans were ecstatic, and for good reason. We had gone from seeing washed up veterans like Jeremy Guthrie, Roy Oswalt, Jon Garland, and Jamie Moyer get significant starts to having home grown youngsters carry the team. The expectations were raised, and despite the (justifiable) frustration with many components of what should be the team's strengths so far in 2018, the Rockies enter June first place in the competitive NL West, which historically gives them a 58% chance of winning the division at season's end.

Simply based on team performance, Jeff Bridich's tenure as a GM has been a success. The Rockies have seen their record improve each year under Bridich, and are on pace to potentially extend that streak. And yet, that success has been despite many of the prominent moves and signings of Bridich and his staff, and instead is primarily due to a string of successful early draft picks late in the Dan O'Dowd/Bill Geivett era. And given the red flags of the first few years of Bridich's tenure, we should probably not get used to the Rockies competing for a playoff spot every year.

O'Dowd and Geivett Early Round Draft Picks

A significant portion of the Rockies major contributors right now were first or second round selections by Dan O'Dowd and Bill Geivett:

• Nolan Arenado: 2nd round in 2009.
• Chad Bettis: 2nd round in 2010.
• Trevor Story: 1st round in 2011.
• David Dahl: 1st round in 2012. 
• Jon Gray: 1st round in 2013.
• Ryan McMahon: 2nd round in 2013.
• Kyle Freeland: 1st round in 2014.

Although only Nolan of that group is a true superstar, having a run of 6 straight drafts in which a first or second round draft pick is currently on the major league roster and contributing meaningfully is a major success of scouting, drafting, and player development, and is the main reason for their strong performance in 2017 and 2018 so far. 

Bridich Early Round Draft Picks

While it is too early to say whether or not any of Bridich's early draft picks will ever contribute at the major league level, we can look at their early career performances in the low minors to get a feel for whether or not this recent run of Rockies success will continue into the next decade. 

• Brendan Rodgers: 1st round in 2015. All signs point to Rodgers being a strong major league middle infielder for years to come, with him abusing minor league pitching at every stop of his professional career so far.

• Mike Nikorak: 1st round in 2015. In 15 starts with the rookie-league Grand Junction Rockies in 2015 and 2016, Nikorak amassed a 6.70 ERA with 34 strikeouts and 51 walks in 47 innings. As if those horrible numbers weren't enough of a red flag that he would never fully pan out (K/9 and K/BB generally translate well across minor league levels), he had Tommy John surgery in spring 2017.

• Tyler Nevin: 1st round in 2015. I'm immediately skeptical of first round picks that are the children of former major leaguers (former first overall pick and all-star Phil Nevin in this case), and Nevin hasn't done much in his short minor league career so far to make this seem like anything but a nepotism pick. In 659 career minor league at bats across various levels of A-ball, Nevin has a 0.785 OPS. 

• Peter Lambert: 2nd round in 2015. Lambert has performed well at each level of the minors he has stopped at so far, showing a promising trajectory towards the majors. He has 308 strikeouts and 83 walks in 353 2/3 career minor league innings.

• Riley Pint: 1st round in 2016. After being selected 4th overall and given a 4.8 million dollar signing bonus, Pint pitched to a 5.35 ERA in rookie ball in 2016 and a 5.42 ERA in A-ball last year. He has 115 strikeouts and 84 (!) walks in 130 career professional innings, and gave up 5 runs while recording just 1 out in his lone 2018 appearance, since which he has been out with forearm tightness. 

• Robert Tyler: 1st round in 2016. In his first professional season in 2016, Tyler had a 6.43 ERA with 5 strikeouts and 16 walks in just 7 innings. After not pitching at all in 2017 due to shoulder fatigue (red flag alert), he is off to a decent start out of the bullpen in Asheville in 2018, with 20 strikeouts and just 4 walks in 17 innings.

• Ben Bowden: 2nd round in 2016. Stop me if this sounds familiar. Bowden pitched well (29 Ks and 15 BB in 23 2/23 innings) to start his career in 2016 before (major red flag alert!) not pitching at all in 2017 due to an undisclosed injury.

• Ryan Vilade: 2nd round in 2017. After performing well in rookie ball last year, the SS prospect who was the first selection for the Rockies in 2017 (more on this later) has struggled to a poor 0.639 OPS in Asheville in 2018, but scouts say his fielding abilities should help him stay on course.

• Tommy Doyle: 2nd round in 2017. A college reliever who the Rockies picked 70th overall despite being ranked as the 168th best prospect in that draft by MLB.com, Doyle has a 4.91 ERA with 42 Ks and 16 BBs in 40 1/3 innings closing out games in the low minors.

So in summary, with his early round draft picks, Bridich has prepared the next generation Rockies to have a potentially great infielder (Rodgers), a Barmes-esque "defensive specialist" (Vilade), a good starter (Lambert), two below average relievers (Tyler and Doyle), and a whole bunch of injury and performance red flags.

But perhaps the biggest red flag of the Bridich era is his handling of free agents, with many big name signings grossly underperforming for the Rockies. Ian Desmond has been the most frustrating of the bunch, and by outbidding Texas' qualifying offer for him after the 2016 season, the Rockies forfeited their 2017 first round draft pick. So not only are the Rockies crippling their present by paying him 15-20 million per year for the next 5 years, they have crippled their future by missing out on a first round pick in exchange for him, which as we have seen is the most likely way for the Rockies to build success. 

Although given the plethora of young pitchers drafted early by Bridich who either underperform or get mysterious fatigue-based injuries, it's hard to have confidence that the Rockies wouldn't have ruined whoever they might have drafted.