O'Dowd and Geivett brought the current Rockies success, while Bridich may trigger a regression

When the Rockies bounced back from some of their most embarrassing years in franchise history with a playoff appearance in 2017, fans were ecstatic, and for good reason. We had gone from seeing washed up veterans like Jeremy Guthrie, Roy Oswalt, Jon Garland, and Jamie Moyer get significant starts to having home grown youngsters carry the team. The expectations were raised, and despite the (justifiable) frustration with many components of what should be the team's strengths so far in 2018, the Rockies enter June first place in the competitive NL West, which historically gives them a 58% chance of winning the division at season's end.

Simply based on team performance, Jeff Bridich's tenure as a GM has been a success. The Rockies have seen their record improve each year under Bridich, and are on pace to potentially extend that streak. And yet, that success has been despite many of the prominent moves and signings of Bridich and his staff, and instead is primarily due to a string of successful early draft picks late in the Dan O'Dowd/Bill Geivett era. And given the red flags of the first few years of Bridich's tenure, we should probably not get used to the Rockies competing for a playoff spot every year.

O'Dowd and Geivett Early Round Draft Picks

A significant portion of the Rockies major contributors right now were first or second round selections by Dan O'Dowd and Bill Geivett:

• Nolan Arenado: 2nd round in 2009.
• Chad Bettis: 2nd round in 2010.
• Trevor Story: 1st round in 2011.
• David Dahl: 1st round in 2012. 
• Jon Gray: 1st round in 2013.
• Ryan McMahon: 2nd round in 2013.
• Kyle Freeland: 1st round in 2014.

Although only Nolan of that group is a true superstar, having a run of 6 straight drafts in which a first or second round draft pick is currently on the major league roster and contributing meaningfully is a major success of scouting, drafting, and player development, and is the main reason for their strong performance in 2017 and 2018 so far. 

Bridich Early Round Draft Picks

While it is too early to say whether or not any of Bridich's early draft picks will ever contribute at the major league level, we can look at their early career performances in the low minors to get a feel for whether or not this recent run of Rockies success will continue into the next decade. 

• Brendan Rodgers: 1st round in 2015. All signs point to Rodgers being a strong major league middle infielder for years to come, with him abusing minor league pitching at every stop of his professional career so far.

• Mike Nikorak: 1st round in 2015. In 15 starts with the rookie-league Grand Junction Rockies in 2015 and 2016, Nikorak amassed a 6.70 ERA with 34 strikeouts and 51 walks in 47 innings. As if those horrible numbers weren't enough of a red flag that he would never fully pan out (K/9 and K/BB generally translate well across minor league levels), he had Tommy John surgery in spring 2017.

• Tyler Nevin: 1st round in 2015. I'm immediately skeptical of first round picks that are the children of former major leaguers (former first overall pick and all-star Phil Nevin in this case), and Nevin hasn't done much in his short minor league career so far to make this seem like anything but a nepotism pick. In 659 career minor league at bats across various levels of A-ball, Nevin has a 0.785 OPS. 

• Peter Lambert: 2nd round in 2015. Lambert has performed well at each level of the minors he has stopped at so far, showing a promising trajectory towards the majors. He has 308 strikeouts and 83 walks in 353 2/3 career minor league innings.

• Riley Pint: 1st round in 2016. After being selected 4th overall and given a 4.8 million dollar signing bonus, Pint pitched to a 5.35 ERA in rookie ball in 2016 and a 5.42 ERA in A-ball last year. He has 115 strikeouts and 84 (!) walks in 130 career professional innings, and gave up 5 runs while recording just 1 out in his lone 2018 appearance, since which he has been out with forearm tightness. 

• Robert Tyler: 1st round in 2016. In his first professional season in 2016, Tyler had a 6.43 ERA with 5 strikeouts and 16 walks in just 7 innings. After not pitching at all in 2017 due to shoulder fatigue (red flag alert), he is off to a decent start out of the bullpen in Asheville in 2018, with 20 strikeouts and just 4 walks in 17 innings.

• Ben Bowden: 2nd round in 2016. Stop me if this sounds familiar. Bowden pitched well (29 Ks and 15 BB in 23 2/23 innings) to start his career in 2016 before (major red flag alert!) not pitching at all in 2017 due to an undisclosed injury.

• Ryan Vilade: 2nd round in 2017. After performing well in rookie ball last year, the SS prospect who was the first selection for the Rockies in 2017 (more on this later) has struggled to a poor 0.639 OPS in Asheville in 2018, but scouts say his fielding abilities should help him stay on course.

• Tommy Doyle: 2nd round in 2017. A college reliever who the Rockies picked 70th overall despite being ranked as the 168th best prospect in that draft by MLB.com, Doyle has a 4.91 ERA with 42 Ks and 16 BBs in 40 1/3 innings closing out games in the low minors.

So in summary, with his early round draft picks, Bridich has prepared the next generation Rockies to have a potentially great infielder (Rodgers), a Barmes-esque "defensive specialist" (Vilade), a good starter (Lambert), two below average relievers (Tyler and Doyle), and a whole bunch of injury and performance red flags.

But perhaps the biggest red flag of the Bridich era is his handling of free agents, with many big name signings grossly underperforming for the Rockies. Ian Desmond has been the most frustrating of the bunch, and by outbidding Texas' qualifying offer for him after the 2016 season, the Rockies forfeited their 2017 first round draft pick. So not only are the Rockies crippling their present by paying him 15-20 million per year for the next 5 years, they have crippled their future by missing out on a first round pick in exchange for him, which as we have seen is the most likely way for the Rockies to build success. 

Although given the plethora of young pitchers drafted early by Bridich who either underperform or get mysterious fatigue-based injuries, it's hard to have confidence that the Rockies wouldn't have ruined whoever they might have drafted.