The "bullpen by committee" - a solution to the Rockies relief pitching woes

Adam Ottavino has been phenomenal for the Rockies this year. In fact, he leads all major league relief pitchers in WAR, even though he has missed the last two weeks. Since Ott went down on May 27th, the only two relievers who have managed to give the Rockies reliable appearances out of the bullpen are rookie Harrison Musgrave, and Adam's DL-replacement Scott Oberg, who have over that span combined to throw 17 2/3 innings and give up just 4 earned runs (all 4 Musgrave's), despite making a combined $920K this season.

Meanwhile, 2015-2016 Rockies reliever Justin Miller elected free agency after the 2016 season, bounced around the minors for the last year and a half, and has found a new home with the Washington Nationals (on the same minor league/minimum salary as Oberg and Musgrave), where since his call-up two weeks ago has thrown 9 innings, allowed just 1 base runner, and has amassed 17 strikeouts. (Let's ignore the fact that he is sporting an obvious roidbeard.)

Justin Miller, Roidbeard champion, and amazing bargain relief pitcher.

Miller is not a rookie, but during his minor league tenure the last year and a half, he supposedly added a pair of new pitches to his repertoire, effectively neutralizing any prior scouting teams had done on him. Perhaps once scouts get up to speed on his new stuff, he'll stop missing bats and will return to being a fringe major leaguer. But even if that happens in the next few weeks, having 10+ effective appearances from a guy on a league minimum salary has incredible value to a team. Especially when the alternative is taking the Bridich route of signing proven veteran relievers to massive contracts to bolster the bullpen, only to have them implode night after night.

Almost no relievers find sustained success for several straight years. It's such a specific skill set, requires tip-top precision and velocity during every single at bat, that the smallest bit of regression can be the difference between an all-star reliever and a 7+ ERA. Even Ottavino, who had been great for the first 4 years of his career, was a below average pitcher last year before addressing his issues this past offseason. And unless he's one of a handful of relief pitchers from each generation that can maintain success out of the pen for many consecutive years, he'll have another awful year sometime in the near future. Hopefully it's a team besides the Rockies that has paid him $15MM immediately before that happens.

The Bullpen By Committee

The success in limited sample size of Oberg, Musgrave, and Miller presents a new idea for approaching a bullpen. The Rockies 2018 strategy is an undeniable failure, and the amount of money committed to the top bullpen arms gives them such reluctance to make significant changes. But if young or revamped relief pitchers can have a month of great success before the scouting catches up to them, why wouldn't a team just use a "bullpen by committee," rotating through relievers at the league minimum for a month at a time, and immediately moving on from them once the scouts catch up?

At worst, these pitchers would perform at the same level as Bryan Shaw, Chris Rusin, Mike Dunn, et al. have for the Rockies this year. Ideally, you get a few weeks of above average performance, like Justin Miller is currently providing the nationals. And perhaps every once in a while, the resurgence is legitimate and you get a few years of reliable relief pitching from your cheap signee, and move on from them before the inevitable implosion that ultimately finds nearly every relief pitcher, regardless of their peak performance.

Here are the top relievers of 2018 so far, by WAR:

On that list are a few veterans on affordable contracts (Ottavino, Herrera, Doolittle), a few players at or near the league minimum (Jeffress, Hader, Hughes, Treinen, Barnes), and the two undeniable best relief pitchers of this generation. For comparison, here is the complete list of Rockies 2018 relief pitchers, each of whom has made at least 10 appearances so far this year:

Outside of Ottavino and Wade Davis (who had been pitching like an all star until the last couple weeks, and now seems to have had the Rockies bug rub off on him), only the aforementioned Musgrave and Oberg have provided any real positive value to the Rockies bullpen this year, while several players have been majorly negative. 

Given the vulnerability and inconsistency of all relief pitchers, is it EVER worth the $7M+ it takes to get a "solid" veteran relief pitcher to bolster the bullpen? Especially considering that at worst, the alternative is cycling through a few Brooks Pounders' until you find a Richard Bleier or a Justin Miller. Perhaps every once in a while you'll get lucky with an Ottavino or Kelvin Herrera, but even a half or full season of that may not be worth it if they turn into a Bryan Shaw or Mike Dunn before the contract runs up. And unless you know for sure you're getting one of the top relievers of the generation, who will be rock solid night after night for years to come, there is no excuse for spending such an exorbitant amount on a bullpen arm. 

Instead, the Rockies should move forward piecing together a bullpen of minimum salaries, moving on from the lost causes that are the majority of their bullpen right now. Maybe it wouldn't pan out or provide success in the grind of a playoff run, but it would at least give them a chance to stay in the race, instead of crippling the team financially for years to come and requiring Bud Black to run the same washed up arms out there every single game. And maybe they'd get lucky and find a young arm or a revamped veteran that can bring the Rockies long-awaited October success while not holding the organization hostage financially over the duration of a long expensive contract.